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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Randy Ellingson who wrote (105241)	6/23/2000 8:37:00 AM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Growth is slowing a lot. This seems to imply actually that core books is shrinking rather than growing: "Amazon.com (AMZN; $42 1/8; D-1-1-9) Dec00Ed$1.20; 02E d$0.51 ? AMZN has been weak of late as a result of concerns about the company?s top-line performance in Q2 and beyond. We have spoken to the company several times in the last few weeks, but have received no additional color about the company?s performance. ? As we said in our preview note two weeks ago, we are not looking for much, if any, upside to our Q2 revenue estimate of $585mm. This estimate represents nominal growth of 2% sequentially, which would be slower than last year?s 7% pace, and it is below some Street estimates (i.e., some more aggressive estimates may have to come down). Based on the company?s traffic in the quarter (according to Media Metrix), we do not expect upside. ? The reasons we expect a slowdown from last year?s sequential growth are 1) a general slowdown in the growth of the consumer internet industry, 2) a slowdown in consumer spending as the economy begins to slow (other large retailers have felt the impact of this), and 3) the law of large numbers. ? If Amazon only hits our Q2 estimate, which we believe is possible, we might have to trim our Q3 revenue estimate if the impact of the aforementioned slowdown in consumer internet growth. This estimate, of $665mm, calls for 14% sequential growth, which is essentially in line with the sequential growth of the prior year. We are still comfortable with our full-year estimate of $2.8 billion, as we believe there may be small upside to our $1B Q4 estimate. ? We are maintaining our Buy/Buy rating on AMZN. We still expect any positive catalysts for the stock until late summer or early fall (when excitement about the holiday shopping season should start to build). (H. Blodget) RC#11217429 Bulletin United States 22 June 2000 Investor Support Group Intra-Day Special Note AMZN Research Summary"