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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (2338)	6/23/2000 8:26:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi Chip, the genome stocks will deal with the vissitudes of sentiment for quite a while. such is life. Apparently, original systems like the turtle's don't retain their magic and need to be altered as the market changes. Breakout systems are now being used by to many players, to please the developers. I don't know all the specific mechanics of the Turtle's system, but I would suggest that one needs to look at almost a 30 year cycle of inflation and disinflation and even the longer 54-60 year Kondratieff cycle. just to use history as a guide , in "Reminisciences of a Stock Operator" the author talks about how active and tradable US stocks were during the first decade of the 20th century, and then he said that the market became dull and listless, for years the late teen's were a banner massive bull market for inflation and commodities. we had massive tops in commodities, and interest rate yields in 1919-20. and trading stocks was said to be hard in the teens. I know from real time experience that we talk about the last 3-5 years as if its all that matters and from a practical trading view, it's hard to talk about longer time periods and longer cycles. It's even harder to adapt to the longer term cycles. I have to this day a couple of huge Valueline binders from 1983-1984 and you could not find more than 3 or 4 stocks that had a PE over 20 I could not believe in 1984 that PE ratio's ever got up to 60 or 80 or 100, as they did in the late 1960's and early 1970's. I was pretty sure I would never see it for years and years, if ever. History and patience are our best friends in the market. Have you seen the Goldman Sachs commodity index charts lately, from say the past 5 year? One additional note....the markets are harder than I make them sound and I know it!!!! John