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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (45811)	6/23/2000 9:08:00 AM
From: blake_paterson	Respond to of 93625

'Mornin Cap'n! Deep sea short fishin should be good today <ggg>. Here's another PTNewell post (we've got to add him to the list): Rambus 2002 Earnings: $25.20/share The DRAM field is a "cyclical secular" - it has strong ups and downs on top of a powerful underlying growth. DataQuest, which has the best prediction record, predicted at the start of the year that the DRAM market would be $29 billion in 2000 and $70 billion in 2002. Rambus was predicted to have a 10% share in 2000 and a 50% share by 2002. However actual sales are exceeding predictions. The most recent projections are for a $36 billion market in 2000 ($3.65 billion Rambus). The world?s largest memory maker, and biggest produced of Rambus products, Samsung, now predicts a $36 billion dollar market for Rambus by 2002. DRAM $36 billion in 2000 (6/15/00) ebnews.com Samsung estimates Rambus production, June 22, 2000 bloomberg.com The recent settlements by Toshiba and Hitachi imply that Rambus will be able to charge royalty on ALL DRAM, whether RDRAM (Rambus DRAM) or not. Valuing Rambus: By 2001, Rambus will trade on 2002 earnings. The royalty Rambus collects (pure profit) is about 1.5% on RDRAM, 1% on SDRAM and higher on DDR (such as Nvida graphic cards). In addition, Rambus collects higher royalties on the DRAM controllers (about 5%, although these are cheaper). As a result, Rambus earns about 3% on DRAM sales, half from controllers. The latter half is often convienently ignored by shorts. Since the DRAM market is currently running 20% ahead of projections, I will up the 1999 projection of $70 billion in 2002 by 20%. ********* 3% of $84 billion x (0.6 because 40% go to taxes) = $2.52 billion. Divide by 100 million shares and estimated 2002 earnings are $25.20/share after taxes. *************** If the legal victories hold up, Rambus will have a monopoly more widespread and absolute than Microsoft or Intel. What should a company which will earn $25.20/share after taxes in 2002 be worth in 2001? With high margins, high barriers to competition, and a high growth rate, at least 50 times forward earnings, or $1250 share. Finally, the above is conservative, in overlooking non-DRAM products from Rambus, such as its recently introduced serializer/deserializer, to be marketed by PMC-Sierra.

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (45811)	6/23/2000 9:09:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

I bet you that we will not get the fall back like we got after the toshiba. When I went to bed last night I was thinking that the market was going to be soft and that would hold it back some and maybe profit taking would happen, but now that I have slept on it, the shorts and those that want to get in will cancel out any traders and new shorts. Everyone from longs to shorts will have to know by now that with two settlements in the bag, the rest will follow soon. I'm sure, as I post this, more players have been contacted, since RMBS is in a power position now. One more comment, each year the street picks a darling stock, last year it was QCOM, this year it's going to be RMBS, at least that's my vote, of course I'm biased. <g> RMBS --->The Chip To Chip Communication Company or the silicon data network company. Greg

To: capt rocky 1 who wrote (45811)	6/23/2000 9:10:00 AM
From: The Prophet	Respond to of 93625

Actually, Rocky, you don't give yourself enough credit: Message 13386461 jim kelley who wrote (39447) From: Victor Lazlo Monday, Apr 10, 2000 8:23 AM ET Reply # of 45812 RMBS stock price predictions for the period of today through the end of this year: -----------------------------High --- Low --- Close TimeToMakeTheInvs -- 550 --- 193 --- 400 Pompsander ------------- 510 --- 177 --- 380 Ignatz -------------------- 485 --- 191 --- 423 Victor Lazlo ------------ 820 --- 192 --- 477 Dave B. ---------------- 1000 --- 150 --- 600 Barry Grossman ------- 775 --- 200 --- 670 visionthing ------------- 624 --- 197 --- 516 mishedlo ----------------750 --- 220 --- 650 ekid ---------------------- 785 --- 175 --- 585 Anandnvi -------------- 765 --- 180 --- 689 Prophet ----------------- 750 --- 248 ---- 700 Jdaasoc ---------------- 680 --- 246 --- 474 jhg_in_ kc ------------- 700 --- 210 --- 625. Capt rocky 1 ---------- 942 ---123 ----899