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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (1223)	6/23/2000 4:33:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Well pharma are only going to do major deals like this if they feel it's something they can't do in-house. So it's much more likely they will go with someone major like MLNM or VRTX than a third tier. One of the fascinating questions is whether big pharma are going to panic at the genome "revolution" and start falling into the arms of MLNM and the like. There's a school of thought that says companies like SKB have been poring over e.g., the HGSI data for around seven years already, whereas most of the traditional smaller biotechs can barely afford a modest INCY subscription. This school says the pharma are actually better positioned than many biotechs to take advantage of genomics and advances in rational drug design. Another school of thought says the early genomics payout will mostly be in Mabs, where the biotechs are much more experienced than the pharmas. And of course the old "biotechs are smarter and quicker" theory weighs in here too. Overall the biotech/pharma dance is still absolutely key to understanding valuations. I wish I had a better handle on it. Peter

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (1223)	6/23/2000 6:03:00 PM
From: .Trev	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Hear! Hear! When I think of passing up MLNM at $15, as I did just after it was mentioned in the Economist I get very depressed about my inability to reach correct conclusions. That was of course "PRE _ SPLIT" There's a German proverb that covers it well..... " Too soon old, Too late smart". Cheers, and thanks for your informative comments. As an Engineer I know more about pumping crap than reading and understanding it.

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (1223)	6/23/2000 6:28:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Respond to of 52153

Mike: Just imagine what Amgen would be like if Binder et al. had not had "invented here" syndrome. They've done an AMAZING job with their two products, particularly with Regulatory. Amazing. But can you imagine Amgen with Binder as CEO and Levin as COO, if everyone knew that Levin's insight carried the day? Pfizer wouldn't have been buying WLA, as they'd have been the Amgen Research Institute. Novo Nordisk would be unknown in the States, etc. And, oh yes, there would be 53 states by now, as Thousand Oaks would have seceded from California. This isn't 20-20 hindsight..... contemporaneous commentary is around here somewhere.