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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (55134)	6/23/2000 4:42:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

stcgg:Bear Market Phase II? Hard to tell: " In the second stage, business conditions really start to deteriorate. Stocks go down further as they discount this climate. Corporate profits decline, and the effects of the battering stocks have taken so far is reflected in corporate earnings. For this reason, the public relates much more to what's happening in the second phase, and optimism begins to turn to questioning and even gloom. This usually is the longest phase. It's when the public finally really realizes that something is wrong." --------------- I suspect it may take another 2 - 3 months for this stage to set in. We need to let the higher oil prices and health care completely penetrate into higher prices; we need to see at least 2-3 consecutive months of slowing before we are sure, with falling employment, not just the bogus BLS numbers we've had recently. You realize of course that we haven't had the truth out of BLS yet.( Remember ?: " energy is still very cheap "; and.. "there are no tight labor markets " ) So, first get the truth out of BLS; then, add a couple of months on top of that Dems in Congress are already screaming " stop, stop,........" All their cherished Social Engineering proposed programs ( read: more spending ) are going down the chute... TA ======================================================= Message #55134 from Stcgg at Jun 23, 2000 4:10 PM ET Bear Market - Phase II this time around? When is the obvious time when most people accept this Bear? I think during this earnings season - When they see that revenues are slowing and earnings going forward will be sliced.. The Nasdaq will be the obvious big loser, with it's lofty valuations.. Last quarter (March), ended the month and quarter down, the fund mgrs tried to up the June quarter but have again failed.. We made the left shoulder this month, lower highs on most Nasdaq stocks.. It's pathetic that stocks are now rallying on having secured loans, that were running out of cash.. Do you think rates might hurt this situation further? What will it take to bring investors out of this denial phase? The Abyss of the Armageddon must show it's ugly face during this earnings season I think.. If it does, we're in for a horrendous Wave 3 down from the March highs in the Dung.. >><<