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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (41536)	6/23/2000 5:51:00 PM
From: Lost1	Respond to of 63513

If that happens I will be forced to view June as another P&F headfake..ANOTHER Getting bullish is turning into an expensive habit

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (41536)	6/23/2000 5:54:00 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

I tend to take a little longer view and try to use that to identify inflection points. I can't say that it works but .... FWIW, check out this 5-year Naz chart with 50 and 200 DMA's: finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=5ym Also check out the 2-year chart: finance.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=2ym Other than the brief Oct. 98 meltdown, which soon corrected, the 50DMA has had a tendency to bounce off of the 200 DMA and then stay above it for extended periods of time. Even during the April/May ugliness, look how much higher the 50 DMA was over the 200 DMA on the Naz (shows up best on 2-year chart). I believe this is consistent with the prevailing belief that technology stocks are the one true long-term growth engine of the economy. The Naz choppiness has not shaken that belief, IMO, but rather is perceived by most as a natural reaction to the one period of extreme irrational exuberance in Nov. 99-Feb. 00. That period was exacerbated by the reluctance for tax reasons to take large gains in December because of the large YTD runup and then to the downside by the need to sell to pay the taxman in April. Now that we are past the short term distortions caused by the tax code, I believe that we will resume our long term equity appreciation curve in tech stocks, which is merely a reflection of the continuing increase in the importance of tech companies to the economy. And so, I expect, as the 50 DMA meets the 200 DMA, a bounce upward in the Naz. Convoluted, perhaps, but most of my stuff is ..... MAD DOG

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (41536)	6/23/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Augustus Gloop	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Oh come on! You don't really view this as unexpected do you? We will continue flat to down until the FOMC meets at which point 1 of 3 things will happen. 1. No rate hike but they warn about future hikes and we rally. (up 500 on the nas) 2. .25 BP rate hike and the market reacts poor for a day but then resumes the summer rally. (Up 400 on the nas and maybe more if the fed doesn't sound too hawkish) 3. .50 BP rate hike the world comes to an end for a few days and we recover in July with the idea that the hikes are over. Don't worry, Be happy, Lifes crappy