To: Tom Hua who wrote (204 ) 6/24/2000 11:54:00 AM From: eichler Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 409
Hi Tom, I agree, meltdown not likely....at least not yet... In any case, LBRT's current chart pattern is one of my favorite type of stock plays. When price action forms a tightening wedge such as LBRT's current chart, I analogize it to a coil or spring being wound tighter and tighter until in a great release of energy an explosive reaction occurs. Drawing trend lines from the lows of : 4/17 - 20.62, 5/26 - 21.06, 6/23 - 22.37 and the highs of 5/1- 48.00, 5/9 - 45.87, 6/5 - 33.50, 6/22 - 28.00 it becomes clear there is hardly any room left at the apex of the triangle/wedge in which to remain. Hence, I agree that next week we should see a significant move one way or the other. A quick look at the volume shows surges in volume with upward price movement over the last few weeks, portending that the next big move should be up...(famous last words). This type of play for me in the past have been my biggest winners. (80-200+% gains) The only red flag (and worth noting) would be the money flow indicator very negative. There has been serious distribution in this issue - alot of red on my IQ chart, not something I like to see. I don't think insider selling makes the picture LOOK any better, either. However, many rallying tech stocks I follow have sick money flow as well....definitely screams that at some point in the future (not too far off) the market in general WILL sell off big. Record short positions among the bigtime players (they're usually right) will eventually bring down the market. That all having been said, I do believe we are in a "summer rally"; intermediate term we should continue to rally but personally I will be extra sensitive and vigilant to bail when the major market averages turn south, breaking current up-trend lines. I also won't hesitate to take profits either, especially when we fill that gap around $42.00. That area should be good for a sizeable retracement (38-62%) and possibly a small short play followed by going long again for a re-test and then I'll just have to see how the chart looks then... Good luck to you on this one, should be good for a "double", especially with all the good news items coming out. Don't forget to take a profit! (I think about how the buy-and-holders must feel when they got in late last year, saw price skyrocket 300+ %, only to dive down 80+% to now. Ouch.) Eichler