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Technology Stocks : The New QLogic (ANCR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Bruce Brown who wrote (27394)6/24/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Greg Hull  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
Bruce,

<<I fail to see how you took my comments as trumpeting the stock price of Brocade>>

I think it was this: "He downgrades Brocade using FUD and the stock goes up $60". I don't know how long you have been following this thread, but it has a rich history of attracting denigrators and FUDsters, especially in 1998 and 1999. The action on this thread has ebbed considerably in 2000. It was not unusual to see comments such as "BRCD was up XX points today. Let's see that Y.Z times the entire market cap of ANCR" or "Ancor dropped 2 1/8 again today. Only X more points and it'll be B/K." " Ancor will never land a Tier 1 OEM", etc. Had we not had a previous acquaintance I would not have responded to you, but I'm sure you'll understand in this light why championing an increase in Brocade's stock can be viewed as yet another shot. Thanks for clarifying your intent was to express your earlier impressions of Kumar. Most here were unaware of your past involvement with Kumar.

Here is a very recent example of the type of FUD this board has had to endure. From the Bridge News article to which you responded: "Added Reyes, "Brocade's got a track record of performance and [Piper Jaffray's] banking relationship with Ancor needs to be seen for what it is: a financial relationship that is highly suspect.""

Last fall Kumar came out with a positive report on Ancor. Since then he has come out with several negative reports on Brocade. Understandably Reyes wants to dispel the issues Kumar raises, but he does it in the article published two days ago by stating Piper Jaffray has a financial relationship with Ancor. Where is this relationship documented? Piper has never participated in any of the stock offerings, nor advised Ancor on their sale to Q-Logic. Reyes can resort to ad hominem attacks on Kumar if he wishes, but why drag Ancor into it? A factual response might be more effective for individual retail investors who do their own research like you and me.

When I first posted Kumar's FC comments on the G&K thread, I had no idea of his history, especially regarding INTC. That is not a stock I follow. I have not posted his more recent comments there because they do seem to be an attack on Brocade, rather than a dispassionate evaluation for the benefit of Piper's customers. A high flier like Brocade will attract outlandishly positive, fawning evaluations and absurdly negative evaluations by the analysts. The motivations of both types should be questioned.

<<What's a long term investor to do? Hold right through it all and pay little attention.>>

In this I think you will find accord with many of the posters and lurkers here. If you go back into the archives of this thread you will see many of the same names as you see posting now. At that time there was only one FC switch company with publicly traded stock. Had Brocade been public then perhaps some or all of us would have made different investments.

<<As you know, it's no secret that I own shares in Brocade, but I have my own reasons for that based on the research I have done and not what Ashok Kumar has done. I bought shortly after the IPO last year with the intent of holding for quite a few years.>>

I would not fault anyone for owning Brocade. It has a positive track record now and might possibly be the better investment for someone with a several year investment horizon. But what's a long-term FC investor to do if they bought Ancor prior to May, 1999? Sell Ancor immediately and buy Brocade as soon as it became available? Wait until it is obvious that Brocade is in fact a Gorilla?

I'll let you in on a little secret: I, too, own BRCD. I wish I had pressed the buy button on IPO day when it opened higher than my GTC limit order, but I did not. Of course no true Gorilla Gamer would buy an IPO anyhow. I own it because I think it may become a King. It is possible that Brocade is in a Gorilla Game as Paul Johnson says, but neither he nor anyone else has spelled out for me what the proprietary open standard is they have. People with an opinion seem to have either the technical competence or the Gorilla Game skill set, but not both. Like you, I would never rely solely on an analyst to make my investing decisions.

Most current Ancor investors do not expect the market share of Brocade to remain at 90%. Of course we will have a much clearer picture 12 months from now. How will EMC's purchases be split between Brocade and Ancor? How much will Sun ship? Will any of Brocade's current exclusive customers decide to dual source in any significant volume?

The hope is as market share is reapportioned so will P/S ratios. This might not happen, especially with Q-Logic entering the picture. It will no longer be a pure switch/switch comparison. Of course Brocade might be involved in a merger, too.

You chooses yer horses and places yer bets. Brocade is the safer bet for a new long term investor today, but if you want to avoid the churn, churn, churn aspect what's a several year investor in Ancor supposed to do? Is it really obvious the game is over? Some analysts might recommend selling Ancor today, buy Brocade, and rebalance in 6-12 months if conditions warrant. Since I'm not a trader I'd like to see a little more evidence before shifting entirely to Brocade.

Greg



To: Bruce Brown who wrote (27394)6/25/2000 2:30:00 PM
From: jmanvegas  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 29386
 
Bruce: Have been lurking for awhile. In your opinion, how does a recently signed strategic relationship between BRCD & EMLX affect EMLX? And how does this relationship affect the competitive landscape with QLGC/ANCR? Thanks.

jmanvegas



To: Bruce Brown who wrote (27394)6/26/2000 2:02:00 AM
From: Eleder2020  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 29386
 
I believe there will be an updated version of this article on Monday with Kumar refuting Reyes claim of a financial relationship with Ancor that is suspect. I imagine Ashok will take off the gloves. I hear he was more then a little ticked off with Greggie trashing his reputation.

>>>Added Reyes, "Brocade's got a track record of performance and [PiperJaffray's] banking relationship with Ancor needs to be seen for what it is: a financial relationship that is highly suspect<<<<