Paul, you just remember those instances where I get the "best price" of the day (g). Few recent examples. Friday, two entries in RMBS both under water at the close. A miss, I had a day order at $14.5 on WSTL, it did trade at $14-7/16 and I got none. QCOM buy back on Thursday at $71, was a disaster, it kept going down (my sell was relatively perfect $.25 from the high, however). Few days back, I bought SNDK at $72-7/8 and it rapidly declined under $70, I have posted that my next buy will be around $63, if I get it and it is close to the days low, it is because there is serious support at $62, not because, I get them at the low (of course, if it breaches the $61 area or so, I'll take my losses and wait for a reentry in the low $50 or maybe even lower). Often I will post a priori my entry point, like when I suggested ADPT (at a poster's suggestion) and said I'll put a GTC at $18.5, well it took two days to get there (after an excursion above $20), yes this one was the low of the day, but give me a break, I really had to be patient for this one, and the way the market is behaving, it may be under water soon. Of course, you should not forget our darling VLNC which I just bought at $18.75, well above the days low etc.
The point is, people only remember these "good calls", and because most on this thread are generous at heart, they forgive my bad entries.
By the way, I try to post most of my entries as soon as I get a confirm, that takes some 5 to 10 minutes, and then until I write and edit another few minutes, so most of the time, the thread is informed within half an hour. In those rare cases when I get a "perfect fill", many on the thread share you "enviosity", but if you look at all the trades in the last two weeks, I doubt that more than 10% where within 10% of the days low. In few stocks, like RMBS, where following it closely for some time now (18 months) caused me to develop an instinct to short term "turning points", I do better.
By the way, my interest in both ANCR and VLNC is because these are "healed" floorless addressing very large markets and attempting to create hegemonies in their fields. ANCR is now part of QLGC, but this one was one of my plays for quite sometime before. To make my radar screen, a company must have few attributes which most people call their "fundamentals", and you can bet that I studied VLNC's business, news releases and SEC documents in great details before putting it on my radar. As for rarely calling management, it is an idiosyncrasy of mine, resulting from being in management's places and having to come to the conclusion that I will communicate with investors in a homogeneous fashion, all in writing through the news media and quarterly reports. Too many ambulance chasers out there to catch you in a misstep, a "white lie" etc. Thus, I do not give much weight to communication directly with IR and management. I see what they do through their numbers. And new development that somehow management might want to share just with me, I miss, but I hope to catch these through the technical behavior (see my post to Earlie on the eve of the Toshiba deal on the RMBS thread <VBG>).
Good luck out there and may you have many "fills" that are the day's low, I'll be happy if I get one in ten (VVVBG).
Zeev |
