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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (1454)	6/25/2000 1:22:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4564

Duane: I personally feel we are in a NASDAQ bear market rally. This can last anywhere from two to ten more weeks. I believe we are in a normal pullback and have room to run but doubt we'll get past 4,500. Once we pull back it can break thru the May low's but not at once. To many have been trained on the buy and hold method. The DOW and S&P while not in a bear market mode will get there once the NAZ resumes its decline. If the DOW breaks its diamond to the downside @ 10,300 I will raise cash to high levels. This would be bad for the whole market and mean GE, IBM, HWP, etc. broke supports. Right now its the oil and drug companies keeping the DOW above support cause the co's I follow are on supports now>. I think we can go below 3,800 on the NAZ at this juncture and still recover as long as the semi's and biotechs remain strong and the DOW & S&P don't break supports. When Mary Meeker comes out with caution on AMZN you can bet many funds that are still holding quality nets will be reviewing their positons. AMZN is / was supposed to be one of the 10 surviving net companies. I'd expect the YHOO's of the world to start being trimmed in some of the funds. As for being cautious I'm fully invested (came off margin on Friday) so I don't know if that is a true statement. I probably won't go on margin again this year (I may even pay off my mortgage later this year). I am still riding the individual stocks I posted (on the LTXX thread), just less of some as of Friday. The party of the last year and a half is over. We need to recognize this (sound like E has for a while, so I should have followed your suggestion last year a little sooner.) Remember the companies you posted and the ones I posted are good fundamently. That won't matter once multiples contract again and companies without earnings (read biotechs as well as others)will be shot again. I am looking to be completly out of the market (I'd say b/4 labor day) and invested in safe interest bearing securities. So Duane in the above comments remember I'm the guy who sold LTXX @ $20 (it did go back to $17) on its way to $40 ish, sold CHKP @ $65 last summer and its @ $400+ now (it split), sold MRVC @ $50ish on its run to $190. My timing isn't the best and while I did have some nice gains it probably had more to do with the roaring BULL market than my skills. Have a good weekend. Tim