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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (14805)	6/26/2000 10:45:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Stock Bull: Re "If Greenspan is successful in engineering the so called "soft landing" and inflation is held in check, we should see the markets recover, and going to new highs." You will need a slowing of growth to an acceptable level with inflation held in check and no real damage to earnings growth propects going forward into 2001. I think the last part of the equation regarding earnings is a big concern of Brinker. Even if you make it through the first two hoops the third seems very tough. You can have a soft landing but suffer earnings growth damage. Interest rates will work themselves through the economy going forward. Moreover, the comparables in a slower in economy in 2001 when compared to prior earnings will be tough to beat at least in terms of growth. Market will start to discount this possibility six to nine months in advance. Brinker thinks the highs are in for now and once the Naz rally runs its course the broader market will face sloppy if not difficult times. Re: "Is Bob now saying that he doesn't think that Greenspan will be successful in achieving the soft landing?" No, I believe he sees a 50-50 chance based on historical precedent. There is no guarantee. Re: " Or, is he saying that there are other factors now in play that will cause a continuation of the bear market, regardless of achieving the soft landing? If this is true, what are the other factors?" You need to get through the first two hoops (inflation and slower growth) to a soft landing and you will still face earnings problems and tough comparables in 2001. Re: "I know that a slowing of the economy, and achieving the soft landing, will more than likely have a negative impact on corporate earnings. Is this the reason why a soft landing won't be a major factor in turning around the markets?" Bingo-bango. The problem, of course, would be huge if we get a hard landing.