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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David W. Tucker who wrote (12226)	6/25/2000 9:46:00 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 60323

Dave, superb post. Things are fine now, but what happens during the next recession or foreign economy crisis? That is the one million dollar question. A recession will bring excess flash capacity much sooner. My off the cuff guess is that initially the stock will tank (obviously from whatever price it is at then, not from the present price). However, as flash gets cheaper flash consumption should increase (removable memory may be somewhat price elastic). So, with digital cameras, MP3 players, internet appliances, etc. still growing rapidly (even in a recession), SNDK's royalties should continue to increase at a healthy pace. Conclusion: although more volatile than anyone would like, SNDK should perform well during an economic slowdown. JMHO (and hope) Jay

To: David W. Tucker who wrote (12226)	6/26/2000 12:05:00 AM
From: Ausdauer	Respond to of 60323

Dave, Thanks for taking time to share your thoughts. As I read through the first half of your post I was thinking, "yes, and SNDK's technology ain't quite as simple as Amazon's 'one-click'." No sooner had I thought that and there it was! I think the point you are trying to make is a vital one. Eli stated that the important features of '987 have "stood the test of time" and if there was prior art to be presented and wielded against SanDisk it should be well known by now. The IP story will continue to develop in the background. In the foreground much more dicey things are taking place. In my own mind I see SanDisk moving forward with its manufacturing, whether fab'ed or fabless. I see SanDisk capitalizing on its OEM relationships. I see SanDisk expanding its extensive retail and e-tail presence. I see MMC, a very challenging engineering feat, being groomed as the successor of CF (a safe out should the card assembly patents be nullified). What I don't see is SanDisk resting on its laurels. And there, out of sight in the background, I see the patent litigation maturing. It will either be icing on the cake or a major disappointment. But our biggest risk now, as Eli has said, is execution of the manufacturing strategy. Should SanDisk succeed on both counts, as both a world-class manufacturer and an IP titan, I see immense potential. Unfortunately only time will tell the story. Thus, patience is a key ingredient to this investment. Aus SanDisk...patience and execution.