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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Magnatizer who wrote (36074)	6/26/2000 2:01:00 AM
From: Doug R	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 79304

A casual conversation... Tiric: CAMP kinda hot here alesisgb: yeah, had it on friggin watch the day it did six, was up 2 by 10am and i let it go, oops Tiric: That vol on Wed is still workin' Tiric: Those 6 it did will be nuthin' compared to the entire move Tiric: DS at the 2nd hit on an upward 50 dMA....free money Tiric: double top...Marc and June with a pullback...I think they call that a cup with handle Tiric: March Tiric: increased week to week volatility but weekly volume kinda downtrending. If it gets a volume kick it should bo again Tiric: Financials look bottomed Tiric: This is gonna be an interesting week Tiric: WEN is a no-brainer for 20% in a week again Tiric: ITRA will have nowhere to go but up after tomorrow's intraday low Tiric: I'm gonna have to find room for it Tiric: futures are kinda blah but at least not crumbling alesisgb: i guess they're really thin on sunday nites, not much help Tiric: yeah Tiric: Remember when I said I was ready to short AMZN into any move up? Well the fukr never moved up...Must be worse than I thought Tiric: Their shipping volume sux alesisgb: yeah, we watched it bang the upper channel tht one time Tiric: If they have credit problems now... alesisgb: sed it all along, mgmt sukked Tiric: I should tell Mr Pink it's going to 0....unlike ACRT alesisgb: that would be amazing, imagine the mental damage on inet stox if they file to close shop Tiric: Over the last few weeks you can see that dot-com investors have been running from the Etailers and kinda plopping into b to b Tiric: Hard to say if the AMZN problem will or won't affect the b to b's eventually. The thing about the b to b's is they took an inordinately nasty hit since March alesisgb: it'll come down to if the industries are really secured i think, then yer looking at almost a central dispatch kinda situation to deal making if so Tiric: short covering/bargain hunting/nowhere else to go within the entire dotcom sector is gonna juice the b to b's at least over the short term Tiric: The FDX crap got hammered by fuel prices alesisgb: should bottom soon i'd think Tiric: One interesting point I heard on the tube is that the Etailers can't depend on the internet to get their message across. They gotta use the same old information outlets...radio....tv....newspapers and magazines. Until the internet gets more mainstream and standardized...it's still just a toy alesisgb: there could be monster pressure to lower gas taxes Tiric: The "oil shortage" in the 70's didn't get any tax relief. The real problem is that it's to the best advantage of the oil companies to ignore planning ahead for any supply/pricing problems. By not maintaining inventory they are actually buying futures at a low price Tiric: And they do it for zero outlay alesisgb: that doesn't sound right... Tiric: pretty damn slick...pun intended alesisgb: if inventory is low, price is high Tiric: By maintaining any kind of significant inventory would cost money....storage facilities...product sitting on the shlef...etc. alesisgb: yer gonna sell the last bottle of vodka on the shelf for twice what you normally would, lol alesisgb: and prolly have bidders for it, lol alesisgb: sure, inventories are dead money Tiric: exactly...so why spend the money to hold twice the inventory alesisgb: not sure it would be an inventory issue??? wouldn't just go straight into use? Tiric: charge twice the price for 1/2 the inventory and the difference between the cost of maintaining inventory or not is free money Tiric: AND...inventory dictated increases come more often alesisgb: increase in production would mean to me, going directly into use, not into a storage Tiric: There's no problem with production Tiric: The problem is supply/demand alesisgb: right, they choked supply Tiric: reformulated gas creates a "boutique" market. alesisgb: so increased production/supply would be met by demand, not thrown into inventory Tiric: There are different standards EPA-wise across the country Tiric: Smaller refineries can't produce the mandated "customized" gas alesisgb: i would never just store the stuff...i mean, sure ya got a reserve level, but thats general emergency, seems there would be no reason not to turn over everything you are producing Tiric: Big oil has lobbied itself into a position where they're not required to produce the same formula for everyone alesisgb: who's gonna say...nah, we don't need yer oil to run our shit this week... Tiric: Michigan can only burn type X gas while Minnesota can only burn tyoe W Tiric: California can only burn type Z alesisgb: you would think they know what the demands are, i doubt they change that often, maybe seasonally, but that can all be figgered out Tiric: Creating storage for all the different types is outta the question alesisgb: yeah, but what type is not their concern...its all derivative of shit that comes out of the ground Tiric: Pumping oil out of the ground is not the issue any more alesisgb: their not turning it into gas, that's exxon job... alesisgb: i know, its a matter of do we run the drill or don't we... Tiric: Pump a shitload of it and you still gotta refine it according to 50 different formulas alesisgb: but they are not the refiners! alesisgb: we're talking crude here... Tiric: Nobody's gonna make 50 different types of gas in quantities that it'll take 50 different storage strategies to accomodate any fluctuations in demand alesisgb: i agree, but what does that have to do with, do we drill or don't we... alesisgb: that's not their part of the picture, that's the refiners prollem,imo Tiric: It's all a huge political con game that big oil was able to pull on the govt. using EPA stupidity alesisgb: lol alesisgb: wonder what we'd do if they just sed, fuk u, we'll supply as we see fit... Tiric: But ALL oil has to go through refiners at one point and NO refiner is gonna spend the money it takes to carry inventory for a "boutique" EPA environment alesisgb: but thats not the reason gas is high...its the barrel price of oil, no? Tiric: And NO oil company...refiners or drillers or retailers is gonna take a hit on profit margin just because the shit costs more at the pump Tiric: It's also a function of oil but not to the degree that gas and heating oil prices have gone berserk so fast Tiric: In the last 8 months gas and heating oil has pretty much doubled....per barrel oil is only up 50% in that time alesisgb: heating oil? who the fuk is using heating oil now??? lol Tiric: And there's no shortage of oil per se....and I haven't seen any gas stations out of gas....lol alesisgb: no, just supply shortage alesisgb: greedy fukn bastards can take the world down if they wanted to... Tiric: A shortage would imply that somebody's running out of it somewhere. Nobody has run out of it Tiric: There's no rationing Tiric: no odd-even crap Tiric: no lines Tiric: It's intentionally poor planning Tiric: And a con that was beautifuuly engineered by big oil on EPA laws Tiric: It's like "red-lining"....lobbyists pushed the govt into creating "districts" where only certain types of gas can be sold.....instead of allowing the govt. to create one national standard alesisgb: its not poor planning, its intentional reduction of supply alesisgb: but i don't think its reduction by gas co's alesisgb: but opec Tiric: It's being passed off as poor planning now that it's all in place alesisgb: yeah, right, lol, "umm, yeah, we under estimated demand", pffft Tiric: Energy prices are not included in the PPI due to known factors contributing to "inherent volatility" alesisgb: they can't just come out and say, well, we gave it to you guys for 12 a barrel for a while, now its our turn... Tiric: OPEC is one of the known factors contributing to inherent volatility alesisgb: its an opec gouge is all it is...why should they sell it for 12 if they can get 24 or 30 Tiric: For the same reason that AMZN shouldn't have been selling books as cheap as they have alesisgb: now everyone gotta go over there and say<pleez don't kill the world economy> Tiric: drillers should make a few bucks. That's why I bought PKD and DPTR Tiric: If ya can't beat 'em....buy 'em