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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (55256)	6/25/2000 10:56:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

David, I think the highly regarded Sheik is just trying to cut down on the diplomatic pressures. In any event, within five years there is no way that the automotive industry will convert to hydrogen based fuel cells or anything close to it. You need an infrastructure to distribute hydrogen (assuming hydrogen will be the fuel, which I doubt). The reason oil will not go much above the current range is that alternative hydrocarbons (convertible to oil) will become profitable if crude stays above $30, and frankly, those alternatives could last few hundred years, by then, we may not have nukes, but possibly other novel energy sources (it may be hydrogen after all, but not burning it, fusing it <g>). Zeev

To: LLCF who wrote (55256)	6/26/2000 8:42:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

David markets usually are a discounting mechanism (if not manipulated) at present crude oil prices shelloil starts to attractive and coal for power plants including the expensive scrubbers is very attractive as opposed to gas. Also generating gas from coal starts to be an attractive alternative. That is why I concluded that oil has arrived a price equilibrium adjusted to inflation. Crude oil below $25 is to cheap IMHO and above $35 to expensive. AS to nuclear power plants and low breeders it will take some time to build but more financing will be available as the cost came down somewhat and the present price of BTU starts to make economic sense. BWDIK Haim