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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26802)	6/26/2000 10:03:00 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

I'm not sure what you mean by SanDisk not having the lock. They seem to have the standard in place for digital cameras and there's no reason for me to think they won't have it for the other areas of their business. The tornado is already in place based on total revenue and my guess is that it's coming mostly from the digital camera side of things. Tell me where I've got it wrong. Sure. No problemo. SanDisk has a large chunk of the compact flash card memory market, but not a majority share. There are some other cards out there, including Sony's memory stick......and I believe others which do not rely on Sandisk technology. Apparently, some memory manufacturers use SanDisk technology and license it; some use what may be SanDisk technology, but may not yet license it; and some use technology which is SanDisk-independent. At this point in time, there is not a single widely used open proprietary standard. But the SNDK CF card is becoming increasingly popular. So, to date, I haven't considered it a gorilla........yet. I think Cha2 has it right, by playing the Moore basket approach with SNDK and SSTI, enjoying the tornado(es), and waiting to see who emerges as the gorilla. Apollo PS: agree with your comments on "retrospective gorilla"; I think Rambus is in the bowling alley, and a stronger gorilla candidate than last year when it had just barely gained a toehold after crossing the chasm...with DRDRAM's in workstations. But as I pointed out elsewhere, there is no DRDRAM tornado, at the moment.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26802)	6/26/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: tekboy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

I find the SNDK and RMBS cases more difficult to call than the QCOM and GMST ones. Re SNDK, not only is what Apollo said true, but I still have not seen it definitively proved that SNDK will reap significant tangible rewards from its "proprietary" standard. If QCOM had developed and propagated CDMA but didn't collect hard revenues from licensing it, would we still call it a gorilla? And re RMBS, the recent announcements seem to demonstrate that it will get what SNDK has not yet gotten: actual money from other major players using its technology. I agree with you about the no-tornado-no-gorilla thing, but what, then, would you call a company who has proprietary control over an open standard in a mass market area that is not in hypergrowth? Surely it's a company of interest, no? tekboy/Ares@reallytryingtodecidedwhetherornottoholdit.com

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (26802)	6/26/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: rel4490	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

"As far as Rambus is concerned, there is no such thing as a retrospective gorilla status in a non-tornadoing area because without a tornado there is no gorilla status of any kind. Remember, I'm a by-the-book kind of guy. :) " Actually, I think TekBoy is correct. The SDRAM market has already tornedoed. If the settlements with the DRAM manufacturers continue,RMBS will have become a retrospective gorilla on Main Street with respect to SDRAM by virtue of its unexpected IPR in the SDRAM market. If it can then leverage its Main Street gorilla status to the next generation of memory, which looks very likely based on the recent settlements, we will have a new gorilla game.