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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cardcounter who wrote (46092)	6/26/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Respond to of 93625

Re: "My opin on the stock hasnt changed and I think my downside is rather limited" Good! Don't let facts interfere with your financial judgement. <ROTFLMAO>

To: cardcounter who wrote (46092)	6/26/2000 2:38:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

cardcounter, My opin on the stock hasnt changed and I think my downside is rather limited One thing that's always been true about RMBS is that there's money to be made on both sides given the volatility. I'd love to wish you good luck; unfortunately I can't <G>. I do expect that you'll make money at some point. Don't be afraid to take your profits when you get them. Dave

To: cardcounter who wrote (46092)	6/26/2000 2:46:00 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Respond to of 93625

cardcounter: i reran the RMBS takes over the world model... froze the expenses and came up with an eps of $3.00 for 2001, which is 6x's the sellside number I came up with $7.00 / share earnings in 2004 for 100% royalty payers model assuming RMBS nets 1% after taxes on $70 B memory market. In 2001, I predict that RMBS will earn conservatively based upon what we know already 0.4% of approximately $50 B memory market or about $2.00 / share. My 0.4% net number comes from the combination of 0.1% which you get from SDRAM/DDR sales by adding together Hitachi (3% market share) and Toshiba (7% market share) to comprise 10% of entire memory market. The remaining 0.3% net comes from combined RDRAM sales that Samsung's estimates to be 30% of entire memory market in 2001. I may be counting RDRAM from Toshiba twice but I think royalty payments from DDR are greater than either SDRAM or RDRAM and will even things out. Depending on how quickly RMBS signs up other DRAM manufacturers for SDRAM/DDR royalties, that 2001 number could go much higher. with my 50 multiple, we're at $150 which is 10 pts above where i shorted it.. All I can say is please go back to March's posts and look at McNabb's Brothers posts. I can see readily you having about 1/10 the skill level as compared to him. I wish you a lot of luck. john