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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stock bull who wrote (14832)	6/26/2000 8:25:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

SB: Re: "Given that Greenspan is successful in engineering the soft landing, is it possible for corporate earnings to remain in tact, such that we don't suffer a continuing bear market because earnings are now the problem? Or, is it a given that the rate increases "must" take a toll on earnings? In other words, there really is no such thing as a soft landing because corporate earnings will suffer. Conclusion, we can't avoid a continuing bear market." We can't say we are in a bear market as typically defined in any index except the Nasdaq. Other indicies are in correction mode or flat to slightly down. A soft landing will do damage to corporate earnings IMO but the question is as to degree and so the resulting damage to the market is one of degree also. Best possible outcome in Brinker's view I think is a flat to slightly rising market given the perfect soft landing. But one is taking a great amount of risk to attain those goals given the hoops the economy and market must jump through. One can do the same in a money market fund tax issues aside. If we get a nice rally in here, one must ask oneself if a perfect soft landing has been fully discounted by the market so that all the risks are to the downside given all we have talked about. IMO if consumers and the stock market fully discount a soft landing in their behavior, then the less likely we are to have one. People were afraid in 1994 (lower multiples and lower sentiment readings) that the Greenman would blow it and give us a hard landing. I think the opposite is the case now. Complacency rules and a soft landing is not only hoped for but also expected.