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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Archie Meeties who wrote (2447)	6/27/2000 12:33:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Congratulations, You just got the *Post of the Month* for this thread. That is the big time type of presentation that I have seen first 12 months ago by the Prudential energy quantitative analyst and then again 6 months ago at another "fest". as per one of the calculations Natural gas production and utilization will need to expand 90% by 2015 to meet the usage projections. The Gulf of Mexico is a major source of this,but we'll have to expand the deployment of rigs to do this go RIG (Transocean) and all of the related players in that build out. I wish I could link pages, but the page that points out that this is not an easy task....this one -------- S IMMONS & C OMPANY INTERNATIONAL Meeting This Supply Forecast Is Not An Easy Task Meeting This Supply Forecast Meeting This Supply Forecast Is Not An Easy Task Is Not An Easy Task ! Current Identifiable Decline Rates Already Steep And Rising ? Offshore Shelf 40% - 50% In Year 1 ? Western Canada 33% In Year 1 ! Much (Or All) Of Growth Needs To Come From ?Frontiers? ? Deepwater Gulf Of Mexico ? Deep Formations In Lower 48 ? Foothills And Above In Western Canada ? Offshore Eastern Canada ? Eastern Gulf Of Mexico ------ is very pertainent S IMMONS & C OMPANY INTERNATIONAL Natural Gas Future Tied To ?Rig? Needs Natural Gas Future Tied To ?Rig? Needs Natural Gas Future Tied To ?Rig? Needs ! U. S. Picture ? Number Of Wells Drilled Needs To Grow " 23, 000 In 1998 " 48, 000 By 2015 ? Industry Needs " 1,350 More Land Rigs (Mostly 2,000 HP Rigs) " 150 Offshore Rigs (Mostly Deepwater) ? Historical Attrition Should Also Require Almost 1, 700 Existing Rigs To Be Rebuilt ! Canada ? Gas Well Completions Need To Grow By Over 50% And Go Far Deeper ------------- this type of message needs to be heeded as this move from the Feb 1999 lows in the energy complex to the recent highs are massive and this may only be the second inning. ------- S IMMONS & C OMPANY INTERNATIONAL Creating Enough Natural Gas Supply Will Strain System Creating Enough Natural Gas Creating Enough Natural Gas Supply Will Strain System Supply Will Strain System ! Natural Gas Demand Has To Rise: Electricity Is The Driver ! Drilling Activity Throughout North America Must Rise ! Costs Will Also Go Up ! But If Supply Falters, America Has No ?Electricity Trap Door? ! So, Oil Service Message: ?Hang On To Your Hats? ---------- I highly encourage everyone to look at this report that I have responded to. I have worked on the metrics and supply/demand situation in the energy complex for a long time. My very first stock investment was in XOM in Q4 of 1974. moving to Houston as a High schooler in 1978 has helped to prep me on the boom-bust cycles in energy land. John