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Technology Stocks : SILICON STORAGE SSTI Flash Mem -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allegoria who wrote (586)	6/27/2000 12:35:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 1881

Eric...thanks for the lengthy post and great info...if indeed (the drop the last 2 days) is to shakeout the little guys...well, it should be working (it got my attention)....Its not so easy to dismiss consecutive 10% drop days, IMO...I would not like to see us hit the 70's in the next couple days......that would mean a loss of most/all of recent gains... Q for you (hopefully not naive)...re: supply/demand issues....I've read where some analysts actually like the fact that supply/demand will be coming back into line (ie, supply coming closer to meeting demand)...perhaps, in 2001 (or some claim earlier)..anyway, some analysts I've read see this as a POSITIVE..that SSTI and others then can produce as much as possible (as demand exists)..not missing out on any sales (due to product contraints)... However, I would think that SSTI and others do as well or better in product constraints times (like now)...for, sure they have lower unit volumes...but chip$ prices get almost hysterical (up) with such a shortage...and I do know each additional $ price increase flows almost straight to the bottom line....barrel of oil <G> So, I am actually a bit less excited than the analysts about supply/demand coming into equilibrum next year..for my research indicates that chips are some of the worst of the boom/bust...ie..they always overshoot (seemingly)....(the way I see it) the closer we get to equilibrium, the closer we get to the possibility of an overshoot Of course, it would be great if the industry could learn to better match supply/demand...and keep it there....BUT that seems to be difficult (is it the $1B+ fab decision, or just poor management, or a combination of the two other factors).. So, (sorry for the rambling)..but do you get my drift? What are your thoughts? Also, how do you think the analysts are going to view stocks like SSTI as demand/supply come back into equilibrum (inevitably)...are the stocks going to take a hit? Is that (too) perhaps a reason for the drop the past days (articles/discussion that supply/demand coming back in line)..Does SSTI become less attractive if supply/demand comes in line, EVEN IF the industry is still growing gangbusters??? Thanks in advance..