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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (82014)	6/27/2000 11:11:00 AM
From: Eggolas Moria	Respond to of 132070

Skeeter, the entire financial journalism arena is a bull market phenomenon, but one that will probably not go away completely. Once you've empowered people with access to information, the genie won't go back into the bottle. Umm . . . so, what is that dude saying about TMF?<g> Just that there are many different aspects to TMF. As stock pickers they may be no better or worse than other bull market geniuses. But many of the discussions on the board are quite good. They just waited a bit too long for an IPO.<g>

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (82014)	7/28/2000 4:23:17 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 132070

Hi Skeeter Bug; Nearly one year ago, I posted predictions for the following 18 months worth of AMZN revenues. Here's the results so far (thousands of dollars): Prediction Actual Err 3Q99 $356579 $355777 0% 4Q99 508314 676042 -33% 1Q00 522684 573889 -9% 2Q00 503003 577876 -14% 3Q00 520605 4Q00 705623 The AMZN story is that the current losses are of no great importance, and that they are instead building a market. What is important, instead, is the growth rate in the revenue of the company. I, and most of the other shorts on this thread, believe that the growth of AMZN is a lot closer to being finished than the longs, and that the recent quarter's results are supportive of our belief. There has been some suggestion on this thread that AMZN's recent quarter's results were not really comparable to the previous quarter's reseults due to seasonality. The purpose of this note is to analyze AMZN's revenue numbers with this caveat in mind. In other words, I am going to look at the revenue series in ways that will eliminate seasonality effects. #reply-10755819 It looks like I was a little low, but not too shabby considering that AMZN was growing at 2.7x year over year at the time I made the post. My biggest error was due to them giving away all that crap last Christmas. -- Carl