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Technology Stocks : John, Mike & Tom's Wild World of Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (1380)	6/27/2000 9:32:00 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2850

John: Regarding T and its suppliers. In many instances there may be nothing wrong but I think we are seeing some smoke here and I would expect a small fire. Since I have been burned before I try (not always successful) to miss some gain opportunities and preserve capital. Now I say this but CCUR and OBAS in the VOD area are not without risk <gg>. I also just entered into VLNC so I am not risk adverse even in this market but this is closely held funds. If your managing money you would need to be more risk adverse. On CAMP I don't know enough about its fundamentals but I thought it was doing a trial with T in Salt Lake with HLIT. I can be wrong and one of the piffers in CAMP should know. I know CAMP also works with Sprint. It can be fine but its clients are having some distractions. On LU. We'll I'm of the position we are in a tech bear market and when companies dissapoint they will be taken out to the wood shed. Now surprisingly I really don't know LU's fundamentals but technically looking at the PnF LU looks to be on life support. 56 would be a double bottom break and a violation of its bullish support line. Next support @ $52. Fundamentaly if T is slowing down its development and upgrades (hey maybe HLIT just lost business to a competitor?? and T is not slowing down, yeah right) that has to be a decrease in sales or at least a decrease in sales growth for LU. So if this is the case the odds favor it getting spanked again and while $52 will provide some initial support, the support will all depend on how bad the news is (if its bad of course). LU should still have a lot going for it (is their AR inproving?) but one lesson I learned is to not worry about the tax hit in selling a position. Especially in this market. We are in a bear market and have to be defensive. Better to miss an opportunity than lose capital. Risk is it can break support and drop to 52 ( in this market I would think more (I can see $40 to $35 area as next support, ouch but again it depends on the news). As a LU holder with the fiber optics expansion (look at the Corning news yesterday) what is the reward? I don't know the answer. I don't want to scare anyone out of a positon. I was recently bashed on the MSTR thread when the stock was @ $28 that the stock had (still has) the potential to go to single digits. We'll it went to $22 but then exploded to $60's. This is a crazy market and LU is a hell of a lot more valuable than MSTR. Just some thoughts on the subject and while T is hurting others like SBC (the SNET sub in CT) is finally rolling out DSL (and so is Bell Atlantic/Nynex/GTE). So there will be winners and losers. Tim