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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: nigel bates who wrote (1265)6/27/2000 1:08:00 PM
From: tuck  Respond to of 52153
 
nigel,

I may have a smidgen more spare time than you, but I balk at three new threads at once. If you guys are maxed out, but can come to a majority vote -- if not consensus -- on what topic would be worth starting, I'll do it. I would solemnly swear to mine relevant stories to the best of my abilities, slight though they are, in order to keep it going.

Cheers, Tuck



To: nigel bates who wrote (1265)6/27/2000 4:25:00 PM
From: Biomaven  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52153
 
nigel,

Lots of other players in this pharmacogenomics and toxicogenomics space. Aside from GENXY, a very early pharmacogenomics player, there are also companies like GLGC. From a year ago:

Wyeth-Ayerst Research and Gene Logic Initiate First Preclinical Toxicity Application of Genomic Gene Expression Technology

Gaithersburg, MD - June 30, 1998 - Gene Logic Inc. (Nasdaq: GLGC) and American Home Products Corporation (AHP) today announced that Gene Logic and AHP's Wyeth-Ayerst Research Division have entered into a pharmacogenomics alliance in the field of preclinical toxicology. Gene Logic and Wyeth-Ayerst will collaborate, using Gene Logic's proprietary gene expression and bioinformatics technologies and Wyeth-Ayerst's compounds and expertise in toxicology, to develop a database of gene expression profiles predictive of different classes of drug toxicity. The alliance expands and accelerates the development of Gene Logic's Toxicology EXPRESS? database. Under the agreement, Wyeth-Ayerst will also have access to Gene Logic's Flow-thru Chip? technology, which will enable the design of DNA microarray chips based on genes selected for the Toxicology EXPRESS? database and the use of such chips for screening large numbers of preclinical compounds. Gene Logic may non-exclusively license databases, Flow-thru Chips and other products developed under the collaborative program to third party customers. Financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed.
Unacceptable toxicity is a major reason for compound failure in pharmaceutical development. There is currently no in vitro model that is considered predictive of toxicity. Knowledge of stress-inducible gene pathways could form the basis for the development of high-throughput screens for toxicological potential.

"Our relationship with Gene Logic provides an opportunity to capitalize on this unique technology," says Dr. Gerald Fisher, senior vice president, Drug Safety and Metabolism, Wyeth-Ayerst Research. "By improving the process by which we evaluate the toxicological profile of new compounds, we should gain an advantage in the development of pharmaceutical candidates which are both efficacious and safe."

"This alliance with Wyeth-Ayerst represents a major strategic deployment of genomics technology in the toxicological evaluation of new drug candidates," said Michael J. Brennan, M.D., Ph.D., President & CEO of Gene Logic. "We believe that pharmacogenomics, the use of genomic information to guide drug development, will become widespread in the pharmaceutical industry. In this example, the ability to predict classes of toxicity based on characteristic changes in gene expression will allow our pharmaceutical partners more rapidly to prioritize selection of compounds for development and, potentially, to reduce reliance on animal testing."


In general you want to "fail early" - trials get progressively more expensive in both dollars and time. Note that from an investor's viewpoint, failing early is essentially invisible. (We do see the sad converse though - "fail late.")

One of the key advantages that pharma have enjoyed over biotech is their ability to fail early and often in peace and quiet. In biotechs all the pressure is to soldier-on with a weak compound rather than to consign the candidate to the dead-compounds-dump with dispatch. The pharma mergers have accelerated this process further - the new company dumps the weaker candidates in the combined portfolio.

Peter




To: nigel bates who wrote (1265)6/30/2000 5:16:18 PM
From: Madharry  Respond to of 52153
 
I sold out of my CRGN Position today. I had a nice profit and I realized that I did not know how to value the company. Any ideas? Morgan Stanley uses a multipl of 2009 projected profits and present values and arrives at a target price 3 years hence. That methodology seems a little farfetched to me.