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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (55461)	6/27/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Wisdom from a "retired broker". Not yours truly. FEAR After taking a break from some fine fishing, and roaming through various message boards, there appear to be two kinds of fear prevalent among the market's short term players: Bears fear some sort of manipulated, month-end-quarter-end corruption on the upside. Bulls fear "missing" some sort of "Summer Rally". Bulls also fear selling anything before seeing the pre-ordained "Summer Rally". However, conversations with a few of my old "partners-in-crime" from back in the "Stone Age" (those years when we ran serious money for other people) suggest that there is another fear creeping in. It's fear of a sea change in the investment environment. It's fear of serious loss of capital. These guys are seasoned professionals, and I mean professionals in the true sense of the word, not those cockeyed jacklegs armed with three years of experience, a wireless Internet connection, and cable channels tuned to CNBS and MTV. The "Tea Leaves" suggest the credit cycle has shifted to contraction - at the margin - and simply put: That's Bad!. There is also a slow realization that some of the market's icons "ain't-comin'-back". MSFT and CSCO have hit the wall with "everyone" loaded to their eyeballs, both financially and emotionally. GE appears to have broken down, or at least it trades very heavy - like it can't get out of its own way. I know three big money investors who have sold the stock from 50 up, after holding the thing for almost 15 years. They simply will not wait until AFTER Jack Welch leaves because their personal acquaintance with the guy caused them to buy the stock in the first place. The Internet "game" is finished - period. No more E-Retailing and that certainly ain't bullish for all those equipment guys hoping to get rich off "infrastructure plays" (SUNW, ORCL, CSCO, JDSU, etc,) There is also a quiet undercurrent running beneath the "Wireless" plays. There is very heavy distribution seen in the entire spectrum of telecommunications, from QCOM to those pitiful attempts to shuck off AWE and CHU on an unsuspecting public. The action in MOT and Nokia are suspect and when you total up the entire spectrum of "tech" that has led the market for the past few years, you get a fat zero. Even the recent nonsense in Rambus is similar to the open-ended manipulation that "infected" QCOM earlier this year. Same script, same game: Gap up, churn down, all on raised "target price" nonsense. Finally, the crater shot in AMZN, widely expected by bears months and months ago, has sent a loud message that even the slowest learners can't ignore. The summation of evidence has my "fossil" buddies fearful of a meltdown. It revolves around the possibility that the public "wakes up", casts aside their CNBC "wisdom" and starts to think for itself. Bear markets EVOLVE and their patterns remain similar. If the public investor says, "To hell with! I've had enough" then the whole thing will fall apart. The Chinese philosopher once said, "Confidence is merely fear, asleep." Once that fear overcomes ingrained confidence, then and only then will the true "Bear" have his financial and emotional payday.