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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Daniel Chisholm who wrote (10790)	6/27/2000 5:07:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78516

Adding also to my small position in DNB today. I offer what I believe are the following "facts": 1. Warren Buffett has bought about 15% of DNB at about $26/sh on average. 2. Mr. Buffett has never lost money on any stock he's ever purchased when we are talking about this level of investment. 3. In the few times I've followed Mr. Buffett into his stocks or kept the stocks I've owned that he's subsequently bought into, I've made money. (May be too soon to tell about CTO though.) 4. There will be a spin off. 5. I do not know what true, intrinsic, fair value is for DNB. I believe the time factor is an important consideration. Imo, the closer we get to the spin off, the more likely the stock is to move away from $26. (I have absolutely no facts to support this contention though.) Since I assume "everyone" who would consider selling knows that Mr. Buffett has bought the stock at $26, potential sellers would be thinking twice about giving up DNB at the "too low" price of $26. So $29-30 becomes an okay place to buy DNB now, imo. Secondly, while there's a catalyst (the spin off), it may take quite some time for the full value of the two companies to be reflected in the market. They may never reach full/fair value. Nevertheless, my bet is that I can make an investor's profit if I buy here, but I must be able to HOLD ON. Which can be tough for me. ("investor's profit" as compared to trader's profit which I define as scalping a few points from any short term moves in the stock. ---- And imo it looks like there may be trading profit opportunities also for those nimble enough.) Paul S. Fwiw, and I've been wrong many, many times before, especially so like now when I believe I've got it figured right.

To: Daniel Chisholm who wrote (10790)	6/27/2000 11:15:00 PM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78516

Moodys is the better business by far. Seems like Moodys just chugs along and grows while the Dun & Bradstreet business always has something wrong with it. I just hope the DNB stock holds up for a few minutes after the spinoff so I can get rid of it at a reasonable price and keep the Moodys. I don't have this one valued precisely, but I know Buffett recently bought this in the high 20s, and it takes about five minutes with the latest annual report to see why.