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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (26920)	6/27/2000 5:46:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy, Great post! Do ya mind if I clarify two points? Far from there being more new gorilla candidates now than earlier, I am struck by how the same names have dominated discussion over a year and a half. It comes back to the same ol' thang that is in the introduction of both manuals. "Ours is deliberately a hyperselective investment strategy [emphasis by the authors, not me] which calls for investing in as few companies as possible. The number of hoops a stock has to jump through to get into the final set is so great, and the criteria are so restrictive, that perhaps 100 of the 8000 or so public companies -- and no private companies -- will qualify." Remember that those 100 companies include all the applications apps still in the bowling alley. Folks, if you don't know how to easily find that quote in context, please take the time to do so. It's on page xxiv in the revised version. To change the subject while I'm ranting about all the GREAT stuff in the authors' introduction, take a look at page xxii also in the revised manual where the authors make it abundantly clear that "the real purpose of the gorilla game [is] to help private investors participate in the rewards of high-tech stock gains while standing clear of the market's unnerving volatility." Repeat that last phrase: while standing clear of the market's unnerving volatility." Back to my second point about tekboy's great post. GMST is also a special case, because we called it correctly (I think) I'm not sure what you mean by "calling it." Of the two surveys conducted, only 55% of the respondents in the first one proclaimed (is that better than "crowned?") Gemstar a Gorilla. In the second survey conducted exactly six months later, slightly more people responded but only 41% proclaimed the Gem a gorilla. The point is that the folder appears to remain consistently split on that opinion with no clear consensus. Or maybe that wasn't what you were referring to. --Mike Buckley

To: tekboy who wrote (26920)	6/27/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

sndk...... SNDK was widely dismissed as a pebble by many, but then has come back into favor recently for some reason that has yet to be explained (since the story has simply not changed that much). I liked your post overall, but thought I would amplify on your SNDK comments. This is JMHO..... I don't think SNDK was ever in favor; hence, it is not "coming back into favor" now. I think it was raised a few times from Spring '99 to December '99, but never made the cut for very serious introspection. There are at least 2 reasons for this. 1.) We were drowning, as a relatively new thread, in gorilla candidate nominees, and could only focus on just so many equities at the same time, while also breathlessly watching Qcom and JDSU run for most of '99. 2.) I was always a little curious about SNDK, but couldn't personally devote the time to the proper DD. In December, or so, Cha2 gave a little rant about our thread's 'dismissing' Ausdauer's comments on SNDK. I disagreed with him on this, invited Ausdauer to update us in December '99, which he graciously did. At that time, the mighty Ausdauer, himself, declared that SNDK was not a gorilla. For me, I began to pay attention to Flash Memory, as more of the buzz got louder and louder on MP3 and digital cameras. All I had to do was notice an increasing use of digital cameras around me, more ads, more articles. My Silverback holding, Intel, announced spending an additional $2 billion to increase Flash memory fabrication capacity. And I had begun to lurk the SNDK thread more frequently. And finally, I duked it out with Merlin a couple months ago on the topic of how BIG digital cameras were becoming. I learned during that experience that filmless cameras were expected to outsell conventional cameras this year for the first time. So, getting back to your commentary........SNDK is in favor with me *now* because: 1. I have a better understanding of Compact Flash memory and the demand for it. 2. I have a better understanding of SNDK's role in Compact Flash memory, its position in the industry, and 3. I have had more of an opportunity, as compared to 12 months ago, to follow SNDK's earnings and growth with sequential quarterly reports. SNDK, IMHO, is a gorilla candidate in the midst of at least 2 tornadoes (digital cameras, MP3 players). The strength of its patents, and the open use of its proprietary architecture need to be confirmed. When they are, if they are, it will then in my mind be a Gorilla. The announcement, today, that the most significant player in handheld PDAs (PalmPilot) is moving to SNDK compact flash memory storage in 2001 is another link in the value chain, and a sign of yet another imminent tornado (PDAs). Apollo