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Technology Stocks : IBM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (6511)	6/27/2000 9:36:00 PM
From: bambs	Respond to of 8220

I think this pig will be closer to $60 then $160 in a years time. It's traded from 4 times revenue in 1995 to 20 times revenue in 2000. Revenue has go now where in that time. Lou has done nothing other then buy back stock, and sell off pieces to help make the appearance of earnings growth. IBM is a short and hold. My 6 month target is $60. It will still be overvalued then but with the public loving to buy the dip and Wall Street continuing to spin the B.S. I see IBM floating around $60 for 5 years or so. Bambs

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (6511)	6/27/2000 10:39:00 PM
From: J R KARY	Respond to of 8220

The pros regularly flog IBM & AAPL like a dirty rug MeThimks Ben A & the Yute gots it - only way for the Street to make up for lost profits from those $12 internet trading fees ! Shake some cheap shares loose in prep for the inevitable run up - $108 has been a buy in spot since last Sept with the Pros figuring IBM's "buy back" is sweet upside insurance . Regarding Jules routine prediction (a genuine IBM bullish indicator) of IBM's demise due "INTC Inside" - check this site (Hardware/OS) for IBM's server success: technologyevaluation.com With INTC supplying $1000 worth of Infinity's CPU and IBM upwards of $80,000 in hardware/software/service "surrounds" its more like "Trojan Horse Outside" ! On the PC side IBM is moving away from a "box" maker to application specific markets where its massive support capabilities (adding 1,000 dedicated employees and $2.6 bln) will out: biz.yahoo.com and IBM's good ole ViaVoice will replace Airline keypunch operators , or at least toothpick usage on coming ASIC handhelds: news.cnet.com Adding value to fundamental hardware and creating a system solution . Something that INTC will attempt as it fights off AMD , Via and Transmeta - not to mention IBM/MOT/AAPL's growing PowerPC MoJo ! And how about a born again OS/2 "workspace on demand" running within Win2000: techweb.com Not smart to bet against IBM at the start of PC Expo - My guess is Win2000 will eventually give way to OS/X - and when it comes to servers IBM's PowerrrrrPC at the top of the food chain. Jim K.

To: THE WATSONYOUTH who wrote (6511)	6/28/2000 4:03:00 PM
From: Arrow Hd.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8220

Watson, your points on the comparison of quarters YOY are issues most of us agree with you on and have posted on previously. And certainly I hope you are correct about 160 by year end since that will make a very fine year for me. But you are a bit harsh with regards to Gerstner. He did have to make some very tough decisions early on when he arrived at IBM. Much of the business has turned around in general. The real issue that has not been solved is price attrition. I am not ignoring Moore's Law here. I am talking serious price erosion far beyond normal price/performance curves. For instance, mainframe MIPs sold for 100K per MIP in 1990 and in 1999 they sold for about 3K a MIP. That is radical. I feel far too much emphasis is put on doing deals at any cost to gain share and close business. More emphasis needs to be placed on quality business deals that lessen price attrition. This is really the over-riding issue today and their management does not have the back-bone to deal with it. We all learned the law of diminishing returns in mgmt 101. The business is there and the volumes have increased dramatically in some of the non-PC sectors but pricing is decimated at every corner. By the way, Watson, you are preannouncing too soon. Wait until December when the stock is at 160 before giving away Gerstner's career plan. Anyway, IMHO, it is Secretary of Education. So I am up one on you now!