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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2471)	6/28/2000 12:57:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

the NASD has never closed down on Fed announcement day since the tightening cycle started in June of 1999. -----FXfocus: A pretty quiet day in the currency market ahead of tomorrow?s FOMC policy announcement. Nonetheless, the dollar was under modest pressure against most of the majors, weakening against the yen after touching one-week highs just below the Y106 level overnight, while closing at it lowest level in 4 days against the euro. Sterling also outperformed the dollar, as did both the Canadian and Australian dollar. The fall in June consumer confidence was largely cited as the source of dollar weakness, though we think that sounds like a bit too easy of an excuse when considering it fell from a record high in May, and remains at lofty levels. Looking ahead to tomorrow, we do not see the market gaining any significant direction from the Fed, as steady monetary policy and a hawkish accompanying statement are widely expected. For whatever it is worth, since the tightening cycle began, the Nasdaq has never closed lower on the day of a Fed meeting, posting an average gain of 64 points.

To: John Pitera who wrote (2471)	6/28/2000 11:19:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Macro highlights...Mexican Peso weakening even with Rate Hike in Mexico, hey everyone is just going to keep raising rates for every it seems lately. Presidential elections in Mexico July 2nd. This time around, it is particularly important because for the first time since 1929 the [practical Monarchy], House of PRI may lose the election. If so, I have really no idea how the Peso will be impacted and what real political agenda the winner may be or develop. PAN is a party friendly to business and the church, which lately it regained political voice after about 150 years of being outcasted. However, this does not mean an easy ride, there are a lot of demands on the government for services and claims of corruption, which could easily turn into a witch hunt chase. A devaluation is NOT out of the question. ALthough a PRI defeat would be a net positive, the alternative is an unproven alternative. wola.org A sample of how things get done: Allegations of Compra y Coacci¢n in the 2000 Elections As the July 2nd election approaches, there are renewed concerns about attempts to manipulate the election and buy votes with government benefits for the poor. Eastern Mexico, devastated by flooding in October 1999, is an area of particular concern. A civic group, Movimiento Ciudadano por la Democracia (MCD ? Citizens Movement for Democracy) is monitoring the disaster relief and reconstruction efforts in affected communities to insure government assistance is distributed promptly and in a non-partisan fashion. MCD claims that the National Disaster Relief Fund (FONDEN) ? which includes both federal and state monies ? has been used politically. The organization has documented the selective distribution of relief to communities aligned with the PRI, as well as the withholding of resources until election time. In Oaxaca, for example, the government has only distributed 456 out of 961 tons of supplies. In March, Partido Acci¢n Nacional (PAN ? National Action Party) deputies in the Veracruz state congress made a surprise visit to a warehouse to verify the existence of 24 storage facilities filled with assistance for flood victims that had never been distributed. Once the exclusive domain of the long-ruling PRI party, compra y coacci¢n is now being practiced by opposition parties that have gained control of municipal and state governments. In March, the Mexican press reported that two Partido de la Revoluci¢n Democr tica (PRD?Democratic Revolutionary Party) members in the state of Tlaxcala accused their own party of using federal resources in favor of PRD candidates, above all for Maricarmen Ram¡rez Garc¡a, Senate candidate and wife of the current governor. They claimed that distribution of PROGRESA benefits were conditioned upon registry with the PRD, and that credenciales were requested prior to receipt of benefits. The PRD denies the accusations and alleges that the incident was fabricated by the PRI. The two PRD members who supposedly denounced the diversion of public resources claimed that their names were used falsely. The Tlaxcala PRD president and Ms. Ram¡rez invited the federal congress to investigate the case. The state congress also announced it would form a multi-party commission to investigate allegations of diversion of public funds for electoral purposes, and invited citizens to present documented complaints to the congress. ... And THAT is just the elections... g On the other hand... businessweek.com Mexico's Election: This Won't Hurt (int'l edition) For the first time in 25 years, presidential elections may take place without a financial crisis An American hedge-fund manager with a $60 million emerging-market portfolio wanted to see for himself how Mexico's much-vaunted democratic transition was progressing. So this veteran of the Asian and Russian financial crises flew to Mexico City and met with the top economic advisers to the two leading presidential candidates. He came away relieved: No matter who wins the July 2 vote, he figures the country will be in capable hands. ''From an economic point of view, I don't think Mexico has ever looked better,'' he says. Personally... I'd rather invest in US equities, let others be the brave ones.