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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (1271)	6/28/2000 8:40:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Peter, <<I would think that GLFD, NBIX and NRGN may be the best fits, or maybe SNAP if they want something cheap and want to play in the serotonin space.>. I will exclude GLFD for some time and add CEPH (bit to expensive now)to NBIX, NRGN and SNAP. Maybe some cheap small bios (private or not). NRGN is bit thin on proprietary biology targets while strong on chemistry (which MLNM will need for CNS field), while NBIX is bit thin on chemistry and good on targets. BTW, if MLNM is merge father I will not mind. Otherwise, I may lost another 5% hair. Miljenko

To: Biomaven who wrote (1271)	6/29/2000 10:10:00 AM
From: biowa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Peter, Pointing out once again, that one may have to apply a geography factor to predicting MLNM acquisitions. Both Chemgenics and LKST were Cambridge companies. Don't think it's that they don't like airplanes, they spend plenty of time on them; but these are also the folks Levin and Alan Crane know best. That factor favors IPIC (doubtful) and NRGN (aren't they somewhere within driving distance <g>). Of course, MLNM also has a BD presence in the Bay Area. FWIW, biowa

To: Biomaven who wrote (1271)	6/30/2000 1:47:05 PM
From: NeuroInvestment	Respond to of 52153

Rick had told me of Peter's kind comments, which were much appreciated. I actually had tried two days ago to post a comment on the MLNM speculation, but it appears to have been digested by some SI poltergeist. Just to add what is essentially agreement with PS and MZ about attractive matchups (a topic I usually avoid because the CNS realities are so bizarre at times--CeNeS buying CNSI, the MRK/SIBIA deal): NRGN has chemistry, but much of its portfolio is already betrothed to PFE. Unclear if complement or CRF would be enough to interest MLNM. IPIC is barely a neuro company anymore--they have pagoclone but that is already partnered with WLA, and they never pretended to be research oriented. SNAP needs a buyout more than anyone, but to the degree to which their partners have voted with their feet, their serotonin, alpha-adrenergic, and galanin targets are not that compelling. NeuroSearch has what I think is the second best portfolio in the sector, and good chemistry capabilities--but they would be a logistical challenge and expensive. Neurocrine has the best pipeline, would be very attractive, and expensive. GLFD and GLIA together have enough of a pipeline to be attractive. CEPH would offer revenues, but the pipeline is thin. Thus I would list NBIX, GLFD, and NeuroSearch as the three most synergistically appealing candidates. I am not suggesting that this is probable, and indeed I would guess that nothing this logical is going to occur. But any of these matchups with MLNM would create a very impressive company (not that MLNM isnt already impressive). Hopefully this post will stick to the system. NeuroInvestment (www.neuroinvestment)

To: Biomaven who wrote (1271)	6/30/2000 1:53:21 PM
From: NeuroInvestment	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Rick had mentioned to me about Peter's kind comments, which were much appreciated. I actually had tried two days ago to post a comment on the MLNM speculation, but it appears to have been digested by some SI poltergeist. Just to add what is essentially agreement with PS and MZ about attractive matchups (a topic I usually avoid because the CNS realities are so bizarre at times--CeNeS buying CNSI, the MRK/SIBIA deal): NRGN has chemistry, but much of its portfolio is already betrothed to PFE. Unclear if complement or CRF would be enough to interest MLNM. IPIC is barely a neuro company anymore--they have pagoclone but that is already partnered with WLA, and they never pretended to be research oriented. SNAP needs a buyout more than anyone, but to the degree to which their partners have voted with their feet, their serotonin, alpha-adrenergic, and galanin targets are not that compelling. NeuroSearch has what I think is the second best portfolio in the sector, and good chemistry capabilities--but they would be a logistical challenge and expensive.Neurocrine has the best pipeline, would be very attractive, and expensive. GLFD and GLIA together have enough of a pipeline to be attractive. CEPH would offer Provigil revenues, but the pipeline is thin. Thus I would list NBIX, GLFD, and NeuroSearch as the three most synergistically appealing candidates. I am not suggesting that this is probable, and indeed I would guess that nothing this logical is going to occur. But any of these matchups with MLNM would create a very impressive company (not that MLNM isnt already impressive). Hopefully this post will stick to the system. Harry Tracy (NeuroInvestment)(www.neuroinvestment.com)