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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (26999)	6/28/2000 12:20:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Eric, Your questions are getting seriously in the way of a critically important post I want to make in the curmudgeon thread. Cut it out! :) First, the issue about Qualcomm: I look back on QCOM and note that it was fully 9 months to a year after hypergrowth began (using the subscriber growth metric) before this reflected in serious stock appreciation. I also recall that there was a "defining event" in the QCOM example (ERICY/QCOM accord). There are two points about that. The first is that stock growth took off nine months later because the Ericsson agreement occured nine months later. Only gorilla gamers track such important things as the tornado in CDMA adoption. My second point is that because it takes at least two quarterly reports to identify a trend, it's inherent that we will nevere positively identify a tornado until at least three months after it has begun. What are your thoughts on whether or not [Gemstar's] tornado winds will start to blow this this year? The most important thought I have is that that I don't try to predict anything of such a short-term nature as I just mentioned in my post to ratan. I bought a position Gemstar based on my belief that part of the IPG is an applications product, noting of course that apps products can be reasonably bought prior to the tornado. Beyond that, I'll simply sit back and watch the progress of the adoption and ignore the fluctuation in the price of the stock. To answer your question (finally!) ... I think there is a reasonable chance we might at some point determine that the tornado began some time this year. Because of the lag we have to endure to identify a trend between at least two quarters, it's posisble that the tornado has already begun right under our very noses. But it's also possible that the tornado won't begin until next year. To make matters really interesting, consider yet another possibility that reminds me of SanDisk's patent on SDRAM. If the ongoing legal battles regarding analog and digital IPGs result in a court-empowered financial windfall based on valid royalties that prove to be long past due, we might find ourselves in a situation in which we can reaasonably say, "Oh my gosh! The tornado began a long time ago but Gemstar simply didn't get paid the royalties until now." Now if that's not the best way to respond to a question without answering it, I give up. :) --Mike Buckley