To: Percival 917 who wrote (23966 ) 6/28/2000 5:16:00 PM From: Dealer Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
SNDK--Stolen from SNDK Board: To: Larry Dudash who wrote (12311) From: Sam Wednesday, June 28, 2000 10:42 AM ET Reply # of 12338 Larry, I'm sure most of the people on this board would like to know the definitive answer to that question. The answer most commonly given--e.g., that a 22% owner (Seagate) has been selling shares with a vengeance since roughly Jan or Feb--is surely part of it. The overhang of that block would keep almost any stock down. The reply to that answer--that if the fundamentals are indeed as good as we believe, why couldn't they find big block buyers of the stock, thus both minimizing the damage and maximizing, in theory, their own return--is also cogent. In reply to that, it may well be that Sandisk management itself would prefer not to have that large a block in just a couple of hands. It is also true that the stock has been especially weak in just the past few days, with other "pure" flash stocks (notably SSTI and FLSH) also taking a dive (even though these two aren't really in exactly the same market space as Sandisk, but nevermind that). If the Seagate explanation is the correct one, we should soon know something a little more definitive, after the upcoming CCs of both companies. I will be disappointed if they still own more a million or two shares, I will be very disappointed if they still own all of the 4 million shares that was reported in May, I believe. It could also be that the turmoil in the mp3 market has taken its toll on the stock. When it shot up last year at about this time, it was in part due the reaction to widespread acceptance of the mp3 format. The SD card addresses the security/copyright issue that has been raised about mp3. However, royalties on the SD card will have to be shared by Sandisk with Toshiba and Matshutita. This is the price they have paid for most likely defeating Sony's memory stick in the marketplace. The royalty income will be made up by increased revenues from sales as flash becomes more ubiquitous. However, the revenue will not flow directly to the bottom line, as royalty revenue essentially does. There could well be some skittishness by Mr. Market as we see how all of this plays out. Lastly, the article on capacity in thestreet.com (see previous post) is just one of many in recent weeks about the new capacity coming on line. The publicity is leading people to get out while they still have strong profits. It seems premature to me to be calling for overcapacity at this stage, but the semi sector moves in faddish ways. It seems that this is latest fad. My guesses and opinions only. I still think that the stock is a buy here--even a strong buy--but also believe that there may be more weakness, especially if we fall below the 60 level or so. The general onreyness of the market can never be overestimated. Eli has said in the past that he wants to create a major global company. I believe that he still has the potential to do this. The next couple of years will tell this tale. Sam