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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: X Y Zebra who wrote (2492)6/28/2000 8:33:00 PM
From: Dan Duchardt  Respond to of 33421
 
Tazio,

A somehow separate, but important factor, is the demand for equities from what I believe to be an expanding market for the same, on a world wide basis. (pure supply/demand for equities themselves, by a growing and increasingly better informed investor).

I'm no economist, and I would never claim that this would hold up, but I've called what you describe the baseball card/comic book mentality. What is the real worth of a classic piece of art? What is the true value of a mint condition Johnny Bench rookie card (I have no clue what you would have to pay for one)? The fact is that people have money to spend on things they want to own for personal enjoyment, or simply because they think they can sell it, and are willing to pay whatever they think it might be worth to someone else (sometimes a bit more, hopefully a bit less). There is no denying the speculative component of the current market, and that is only reinforced by the flip side of depressed price levels of stocks selling far below where they should be based on a companies "net worth". There is fear they will never sell at a "fair value". If we do go back to a market driven by fundamentals (not been involved long enough to know if we ever really had such a thing) then some of us will lose a lot of money, but I'm not convinced it will ever happen.

Keep your eye on baseball cards and comic books. If that market dies start to worry. Meanwhile buy for less than others will pay and sell for more than it will take to get it back.

Now... if I can only figure out the details of the "in between" peaks and valleys

You have lots of company in this area.

Dan



To: X Y Zebra who wrote (2492)6/29/2000 12:01:00 PM
From: John Pitera  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421
 
Therefore, the only real threat of an inflationary bout would be the cartels. --As in the 73 Oil Embargo.

I think that applies over a 5 and 10 year period, in
between supply can be greater than demand and hence, an
upward squeeze on prices.