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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2494)	6/29/2000 12:29:00 AM
From: X Y Zebra	Respond to of 33421

it's not easy Tell me about it ! [meanwhile] Grub !

To: John Pitera who wrote (2494)	6/30/2000 9:23:32 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Morning John, Who's confussed...? Charts are very Clear...! Solar Eclipse On July 1st.....Astro suggests it's violent. Furthermore a closer look at the 25day cumulative sum of the NYSE. Wed April 12th Last over/bought number of +2963 with a 1.09%. Also a 40day peak..! Fri May 19th Market cycled to an over/sold -2862 with a .92% in about 27days. Fri June 2nd Market moved from -210 to +1511 with a neutral .99% to 1.04%. Wed June 7th Marked the 40 day cycle peak.., right on schedual. Wed June 28th 15 days later records a +5308 and a over/bought 1.16%. This is the highest reading since May 13th 1999, where a +6115 or 1.17% over/bought condition existed. There is nothing higher until way back in Nov 1998 with +12,167 and 1.37%....middle of a bull run. (Note: 0.84 and 1.20% equal extreme o/s and o/b) Interesting...! Looks like within the next 25 days ±5-6, there should be another significant rotation.... Around August 4th± This suggests a declining market after the Aug 4 and into Labor Day..! Chip

To: John Pitera who wrote (2494)	7/2/2000 11:07:40 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

the bond market is very tricky for 2 reasons. #1 we are in contracting trading ranges in the 10 year and 30 year bonds. geocities.com if this triangle holds up we will yields rise and prices decline in the 10 year over the next month but it should be a sloppy rally with not much pop that overlaps itself. the type of market that every time it looks like the trend has changed direction, it has not. here is a possible projection, it may not even be this clean geocities.com The liquidity in the long bond is really drying up and it is trading different to how it has traded in over 20 years due to the govt debt buyback and the dealing community, taking the historic step and replacing the 30 year yield with the more liquid 10 year yield. ---------------- It's increasingly important to look at the cash charts in the US debt market. geocities.com this chart of the 30 year yield could have a flat bottom and flat horizontal support zones can be broken and we could see even lower yields and higher prices in the long bond. here is a 3 year chart of the "curve" trade or "spread" trade between the 10 yr note yield and 30 year bond yield geocities.com the 30 year yield got to be as many as 60 basis points above the 10 year in Oct of 1998 and the 30 year yield has fallen to a discount of as many as 38 basis points near Jan 20th 2000. the savvy traders among us many realize that we reached our extremes in this spread near the big oct 5th 1997 low in yield at 4.69 on the long bond and we reached another extreme of -38 basis points when we made our high for the year in yield (low in bond and note prices) back on the Jan 20th 2000 eclipse. right now we are on the trendline where the market has gotten long the 30 year and short the 10 year note in a curve or spread trade. Lets see if this pattern holds this time. here is the spread table between the 10 and the 30 govies. --------- Spread Table 30-year 10-year Spread Spread 30-Jun 5.892 6.018 -12.6 5-day HI: -12.2 29-Jun 5.875 6.031 -15.6 5-day LO: -15.6 Wk Ago: 6.033 6.181 -14.8 30-day HI: -9.5 Mth Ago: 6.210 6.485 -27.5 30-day LO: -28.3 Year Ago: 5.997 5.825 17.2 50-day HI: -9.5 3-day MA: 5.906 6.048 -14.2 50-day LO: -32.2 5-day MA: 5.926 6.065 -13.9 200-day HI: 20.4 10-day MA: 5.938 6.073 -13.5 200-day LO: -37.9 18-day MA: 5.921 6.075 -15.4 52-wk HI: 25.2 30-day MA: 5.977 6.171 -19.4 52-wk LO: -37.9 50-day MA: 6.019 6.241 -22.3 5-yr HI: 58.6 100-day MA: 6.022 6.236 -21.3 5-yr LO: -37.9 200-day MA: 6.163 6.235 -7.1 35-yr Avg: 12.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------