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To: The Verve who wrote (5914)6/29/2000 8:05:00 AM
From: Gus  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 34857
 
So.......... instead of directly answering my question about QCOM's total lack of TDMA/GSM IPRs and the impact on its claims on WCDMA, you decide to....

1) ...assume the worst possible case for WCDMA. In the process you deliberately ignored the progress of numerous GPRS, EDGE, and WCDMA trials around the world. Need I point out the linkage between those trials and the recent carrier decisions that have repeatedly roiled QCOM's stock?

2)...assume the best possible case for CDMA2000. In the process you deliberately ignored the fact that QCOM has a clear track record of over-promising and under-delivering on the technology. Take a look at this timeline from the CDG. What do you see?

1989 - 1st CDMA demo in San Diego
1990 to 1995 - 0 subscribers
1996 - less than 700,000 subscribers
1997 - 7.8 million subscribers
1998 - 23 million subscribers
1999 - 50 million subscribers
2000 - 70-90 million subscribers (est)

3)....assume that the highest data rate and the narrowest spread (1.25 MHz) will attract the highest demand for wireless voice (90% of cashflow) and wireless data. Imagine wireless carriers spending all that money on spectrum and then rushing to recreate the painful wireline experience where data accounts for more than 80% of network traffic and less than 20% of revenues creating a vise-like squeeze on cashflow due to increased network spending and reduced demand for the common stock which effectively increases the cost of debt and equity capital.

Congratulations. You have just proposed a discussion that goes around in perfect circles.

Best of luck to you.

Yes, really.