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To: Islander who wrote (134)	6/29/2000 10:44:00 AM
From: stock bull	Respond to of 285

Hi Islander, thanks for you response to my posting. Many of the examples that you discussed are true. I might add one...I can predict, or forecast with almost 100% accuracy, that if I yelled fire in a theater, everyone would run for the exits. There are certain events that can be predicted with a very high degree of accuracy, others with a fair degree of accuracy, and still others with a very small degree of accuracy. IMO, the stock market is in the class of being forecasted with a very small degree of accuracy. If there was a forecasting model in existence, that offer a greater than 50% probability of predicting the movement of stock prices, I think we would all be rich. I heard of the Elliot Wave theory, but have not taken the time to study it. However, I have heard others discuss the theory and there seems to be mixed opinions about it's forecasting ability. I thought I mentioned that I do believe charts are useful, but again the forecasting accuracy, using the various indicators, is far from being accurate. Of course, this is just my opinion. It's easier to forecast the weather than the market. Stock Bull