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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (55711)	6/29/2000 9:47:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Never mind.... I can easily see how a move out of the US by foreign sources of our debt support could quite simply be a pin.... in which case, who will blink last and get caught holding the equivalent of an I-net in US debt instruments. J

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (55711)	6/29/2000 9:52:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Joel, i think the reason why things are likely to come to a head is the fact that the global economy is now synchronized...thus the demand for capital and resources worldwide is beginning to outstrip the available supply. the result are rising rates, widening credit spreads and rising raw materials costs, especially energy. and one thing a debt bubble is ill equipped to deal with are widening credit spreads and an inverting yield curve. this is why the situation is more dangerous now than it has been previously. furthermore the trade/current account deficit has simply become too big, and its rate of growth too daunting. to bring it back into line, the US economy must slow down drastically, and the dollar must fall. that will lead to foreigners dumping US paper assets... however, the demise of the bubble in the near future is not something that is set in stone...it has proven extremely resilient in the past, and the Fed is trying its best to keep it going by massive reserve injections. regards, hb

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (55711)	6/29/2000 10:18:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 99985

Joel: " But...why now... are all the phases of the moon and alignment of multiple planetary systems converging now on the black hole of the debt bubble? ". Answer I think is yes. There is the new movie out on the giant, historical 1991 hurricane which caused 230 mill in damage and killed 180 people. It happened because three storms formed simultaneously in the outer Atlantic and converged together. That was unusual. The other unusual event however ( for which meteorologists were unprepared for ) was the fact that the Hurricane turned inwards towards land instead of the ususal going out into the Atlantic that meteorologists expected. The Ides of March,also known as Murphy's Law: If something can go wrong it will do so at the worst possible time, ( election time that is, for the Dems ??? ), TA Message #55711 from Joel Gander at Jun 29, 2000 9:40 AM ET Heinz the debt "bubble" has been around for quite some time as well as the dwindling/non-existent US savings rate... but could we not go for years until the pin comes along to implode it? Yes yes yes.... I said the piece you wrote was incredible.... But...why now... are all the phases of the moon and alignment of multiple planetary systems converging now on the black hole of the debt bubble? In other words...there's no going back to Kansas and there is no Wizard... energy price crisis unsupportable equity values (rationally that is) trade balance top heavy consumer debt top heavy islands of corp debt (vortex capable) hidden hedgefund issues and deriviative dominos unusual energy demands due to climate changes (today) vs. efficiency PS I'm not a bear.... but I am finding it very hard to escape some of the above realities on a risk vs. reward basis... I would be grateful to anyone who could tilt me the other way in this pin ball market... J