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To: John Solder who wrote (23697)6/29/2000 12:23:00 PM
From: DanZ  Respond to of 53068
 
GUMM.

The end of the quarter is nearing and GUMM is setting up for its usual beginning of quarter rally. As I have noted at the end of each of the last few quarters, the theory is that a large GUMM short window dresses his portfolio at the end of each quarter either by unboxing the long side of his short position, or pressuring the bid by squeezing the spread. At the beginning of the next quarter, he apparently buys stock to replace the long side of his box and the stock rallies. Based on the price action this week, the familiar market makers on the offer, and the chart, I think that the odds are high that this pattern will repeat again this quarter. This may present a short term trading opportunity for those who don't want to hold GUMM as an investment. Here is a summary of how GUMM has traded at the end of the last six quarters. You can judge for yourself what it means.

Dec 98 Qtr: GUMM bottomed at 6 1/2 in the last week of the quarter and rallied to a high of 15 1/16 in Jan 99.

Mar 99 Qtr: GUMM bottomed at 9 1/2 in the last week of the quarter and rallied to 12 1/2 two weeks later.

Jun 99 Qtr: GUMM bottomed in the last week of the quarter near 10 and rallied to 13 5/8 over the next 2 weeks.

Sep 99 Qtr: GUMM bottomed in the last week of the quarter near 11 1/2 and rallied to 13 3/4 over the next one week.

Dec 99 Qtr: GUMM bottomed at 15 3/8 in the last week of the quarter and rallied to the 52 week high of 36 over the next 2 months.

Mar 00 Qtr: This is the only quarter in the last two years where the trend isn't that pronounced although it did rally from 12 3/4 on March 30 to 16 1/2 on March 31.

Jun 99 Qtr: The stock has been basing this week between 12 1/2 and 13 after falling from 15 two weeks ago. Next week? My guess is that the stock will work its way back to the 15 to 16 area over the next couple of weeks.

BTW, I think that this will be the last quarter that this pattern will repeat. IMO, by the time the Sep 00 quarter ends, the shorts will be gone and the stock will be trading much higher.



To: John Solder who wrote (23697)6/29/2000 12:47:00 PM
From: Paul Moerman  Respond to of 53068
 
I just posted two links on the SNDK thread re insider buying and current analyst recommendation:

Message 13968137



To: John Solder who wrote (23697)6/29/2000 12:57:00 PM
From: Susan Saline  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 53068
 
INIT

eerie ... talked to my INIT friends about an hour ago ... they held the 35's

and asked me if it will ever see 35 again .... I said if/when (trend is up) it does see 35 it will also see 55 again and probably new highs

u want to add?
I like to wait till close and buy near the close

that way ... if it sells off some, you get it cheaper than intraday
if it xloses strong (but higher priced) ... that shows continuation of trend and should also be safe for hold also