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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (55751)	6/29/2000 1:01:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Joel, in many ways the current situation is unique. however, the parallels of the current boom with other disinflationary credit based booms are certainly discernible. the 1920's US boom and the 1980's Japanese boom are probably the best analogies. the main difference is actually the current account deficit, a feature that was absent in those booms. but otherwise they were very similar...budget surpluses, low unemployment rates, strongly rising productivity trends,low inflation, a bubble in financial assets, a too lax monetary policy and a vast increase in private sector debt were all features these booms had in common. the last time the trade/current account deficit of the US grew to similar proportions relative to GDP was in 1987. back then people actually still worried about trade...they don't anymore. regards, hb