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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric L who wrote (27065)	6/30/2000 5:17:34 PM
From: johnzhang	Respond to of 54805

RE: Handheld G&K Game Update (6/30/2000) 1. Latest Handheld News First, in the PDA area, Palm just reported its 4Q results. (http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13964960) Sale is strong with 100% year to year increase and 30% sequential quarterly increase. The result confirms wireless PDA is entering tornado. Palm has maintained its strong king of PDA position with 70% market share in US. One the other hand, new challenger Handspring has come up strongly, gaining 20% of US market. Sony will also enter this market later this year, creating additional competition to Palm's hardware sales. Since both Handspring and Sony use Palm's OS, Palm will likely become a stronger Gorilla in PDA OS but a weaker King in PDA hardware in the near future. In comparison, the outcome in smart phone OS gorilla battle is quite unclear for now. It seems that Symbian is slightly ahead of Palm in the race in term of installation and acceptance, as indicated in recent news that Sony is partner with Symbian (and Texas Instruments) to develop new wireless phone (http://www.symbian.com/news/2000/pr000426.html). However, Symbian and Palm are also forced by Nokia to cooperate in next generation OS development. Because smart phone is expected to have a much larger market than wireless PDA, the reward for winners in smart phone OS area will be huge. 2. Handheld G&K Game Review The handheld G&K game model portfolio has been trailing the market index ever since it started at the end of last year. I was secretly hoping it could catch up the market performance before I give the game update. Anyway, here is the scoreboard: As of June 30, 2000, the handheld G&K game portfolio includes following companies: 3Com, ARM, Kyocera, Nokia, Phone.com and Qualcomm. The $100,000 initial investment in last December has current value of $98,000, down 2%. In comparison, S&P500 is up 2.8%, while Nasdaq is up 8.4% at the same period. For the game rule and the company selection, please refer to following posts: Message 12186529 Message 12415040 There will be one change to the handheld G&K game portfolio: According to the original plan, the portfolio holds 3Com until its Palm spin off is completed. 3Com recently announced the detail of its Palm shares distribution plan. 3Com shareholders on July 11 would receive 1.48 shares of Palm for every shares of 3Com. Therefore, the portfolio will sell its 3Com shares on July 12 and use the proceeds to buy additional Palm shares. (Disclosure: I have long position on 3Com, ARM, Nokia and Qualcomm in my personal investment account.) Wish everybody a happy 4th of July weekend! John