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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: max power who wrote (19220)6/29/2000 2:14:00 PM
From: John Curtis  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 21342
 
Max: LOL!! Up does seem a strange "thang" for 'ol WSTL, eh? Heh! Right now the market seems to be doing to it what amounts to the inverse of the prior 7 days. That is, WSTL appears to be being walked to the upside, all while that spread remains remarkably squeaky tight.

Hmmmmm.....let's seee, here in recent days $15 has proven to be a very strong ceiling. If it breaks through with some sort of conviction I'd say it signals the market powers that be are satiated, and are now looking to reap the benefits of recent machinations.

But what do I know. Let's see how it goes...

John~



To: max power who wrote (19220)6/29/2000 2:23:00 PM
From: Anthony Tsai  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21342
 
Here's the entire Kaufman Brothers research report. After reading this report, I am less worried about WestHELL.

Enjoy,
Anthony

WESTELL TECHNOLOGIES, INC (WSTL* $13 3/16)
RATING: STRONG BUY
PRICE TARGET: $65
ANALYST: BARRY SINE, CFA
ANALYST: CLIFTON GRAY

Raising Estimates Ahead of Strong June Quarter Results

After speaking with the company and performing various channel checks, we
believe Westell is poised to report strong results for the June quarter. Based
on the massive demand for DSL services by Westell's customers, we expect the
company to report better-than expected results on both the top and bottom line.
We are only raising our total revenue projections for the June quarter
slightly as we believe weakness in the company's Total Access Products (TAP)
will offset the upside in DSL CPE. For the fiscal year ending in March 2001,
we have raised our revenue numbers from $387 million to $399 million.
Specifically, we have lowered our TAP revenues from $148 million to $136
million and raised our CPE revenues from $163 million to $186 million. We
believe these numbers still represent the conservative case of what the company
is capable of doing.

CPE Margins to Expand Significantly

In addition, we are raising our EPS estimate from $0.00 for the June quarter
and $0.22 for fiscal 2001 to $0.02 and $0.29, respectively. These changes are
the result of higher than expected sales from CPE products and from lower than
anticipated expenses in R&D and S&M. While CPE is increasing rapidly as a
percentage of equipment sales, we still believe that total equipment gross
margins will increase slightly from the prior quarter. CPE, of course carries
lower margins than the other products. The possibility of gross margins for
all of equipment going up despite the big change in product mix would mean the
company has made significant expansion in CPE gross margins. The addition of
outsource manufacturers, the redesign of the product to require fewer tantalum
capacitors, and the willingness of management to take on increased inventory of
key components will all help the company to expand its CPE gross margins.
CPE Demand Strong Across the Customer List

Through our channel checks, we believe Westell is seeing strong demand for its
CPE products across its entire customer list. In particular, we believe SBC
Communications (SBC $44 9/16) will again be the company's largest account,
despite the fact that it is still an unannounced customer. In addition, Bell
Atlantic (BEL $52 5/8) has continued to expand its roll-out with Westell as the
primary vendor for CPE. We also believe that British Telecom (BTY $134 3/4)
is not too far behind some of the ILECs in North America and will have its
first significant quarter in ordering CPE. As well, we believe Westell is in
solid position to win business at some other ILECs in North America that
currently use end to end proprietary systems. We expect announcements from
such operators late in the fall.

Investment Conclusion - Somebody Stop Me!

Westell is currently trading at less than 15x calendar year 2001 EPS. We
believe the sell-off is unwarranted and overdone. The company has made
significant strides in expanding its margins and penetrating new accounts.
Visibility has never been stronger for the company and yet its stock continues
to languish. We believe there are three issues that are preventing the
investment community from buying this stock: First, the stock is broken
technically and many portfolio managers will typically wait until the momentum
turns around before getting on board. While we understand this philosophy, we
see the current valuation as too attractive to be dissuaded by technicals.
Fundamentals are stronger than they have ever been at Westell. Second,
investors are unexcited by upside surprises after their expectations were
over-inflated in front of the March quarter report. Despite missing some
analyst's projections, the March quarter represented solid progress and
impressive sales growth. The June quarter will be even more impressive. The
ramp is real. Third, many investors are cautious with regards to gross margins
in the CPE business. Westell has improved its gross margins every quarter in
the last three periods, and we believe it will continue to do so. We have
addressed this issue above, and expect the company to address it when it
reports results on July 20 after the close of market.

We reiterate our STRONG BUY rating on shares of Westell with a $65 price
target.


+Kaufman Bros., L.P. makes a market in this security.
*Kaufman Bros., L.P. acted as an underwriter in a public offering of this
security and/or performed other investment banking services.
This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to
be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The
information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be
reliable, but its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based
thereon, are not guaranteed. Kaufman Bros., L.P., its affiliates and
subsidiaries, and/or its officers and employees may from time to time acquire,
hold or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Kaufman Bros., L.P.
may also perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit
investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this
report. Additional information available upon request.
c2000 KAUFMAN BROS., L.P. All rights reserved. Reproduction without written
permission is prohibited.
First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company.
All rights reserved. 888.558.2500



To: max power who wrote (19220)6/29/2000 11:38:12 PM
From: P314159d  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21342
 
max, ask what you would do if you shorted 13 to 10 ...

or 14,5 and 15 to 10

and soon the rest...

How do you feel now, Max? Eps is good if you calculate about 275K modems and at least 90% of the TLTN biz as intact.

Maybe they surprise ME this qtr and get some 34m in HiCap... sorry I digress.



To: max power who wrote (19220)7/1/2000 1:11:09 PM
From: Jay Mowery  Respond to of 21342
 
Max,Piper
<<<<<John, wstl acting strangely here.....seems to be going...up? green arrow next to quote at 14.25....please explain....max is confused..up?>>>>>>

Oh.................
Like Max bein' confused is a new concept or somethin'?????
Own it buddy!
You and I stay that way!!
Damn Max, I turned out the lights over at the PAIR thread with BWAC and it's DARK and QUIET over there!
So..........Figured I'd hop on the Scooter and look for a new adventure!
Since I've already made some good money on WSTL (With Piper's/AKA/P314159d's help) Figured I'd cruz in over here and see what's happenin'!
At present I'm only holdin' 250 shares long (cost basis 15.40 actually less due to previous gains) and 7 call contracts: 6 Nov 25's cost basis $0.00) and one off the wall Nov 30 contract (Also cost basis $0.00.) Thought I'd
hang out here, if nobody minds? Hell? I might even if they do mind.:-)
Actually glad to be holdin' WSTL and I think we can make some more good money on it.
It feels real familiar right now! Like Da Ja Veu all over again!
This ones gonna make us some more bucks buddy!
YBJ