To: max power who wrote (19220 ) 6/29/2000 2:23:00 PM From: Anthony Tsai Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21342
Here's the entire Kaufman Brothers research report. After reading this report, I am less worried about WestHELL. Enjoy, Anthony WESTELL TECHNOLOGIES, INC (WSTL* $13 3/16) RATING: STRONG BUY PRICE TARGET: $65 ANALYST: BARRY SINE, CFA ANALYST: CLIFTON GRAY Raising Estimates Ahead of Strong June Quarter Results After speaking with the company and performing various channel checks, we believe Westell is poised to report strong results for the June quarter. Based on the massive demand for DSL services by Westell's customers, we expect the company to report better-than expected results on both the top and bottom line. We are only raising our total revenue projections for the June quarter slightly as we believe weakness in the company's Total Access Products (TAP) will offset the upside in DSL CPE. For the fiscal year ending in March 2001, we have raised our revenue numbers from $387 million to $399 million. Specifically, we have lowered our TAP revenues from $148 million to $136 million and raised our CPE revenues from $163 million to $186 million. We believe these numbers still represent the conservative case of what the company is capable of doing. CPE Margins to Expand Significantly In addition, we are raising our EPS estimate from $0.00 for the June quarter and $0.22 for fiscal 2001 to $0.02 and $0.29, respectively. These changes are the result of higher than expected sales from CPE products and from lower than anticipated expenses in R&D and S&M. While CPE is increasing rapidly as a percentage of equipment sales, we still believe that total equipment gross margins will increase slightly from the prior quarter. CPE, of course carries lower margins than the other products. The possibility of gross margins for all of equipment going up despite the big change in product mix would mean the company has made significant expansion in CPE gross margins. The addition of outsource manufacturers, the redesign of the product to require fewer tantalum capacitors, and the willingness of management to take on increased inventory of key components will all help the company to expand its CPE gross margins. CPE Demand Strong Across the Customer List Through our channel checks, we believe Westell is seeing strong demand for its CPE products across its entire customer list. In particular, we believe SBC Communications (SBC $44 9/16) will again be the company's largest account, despite the fact that it is still an unannounced customer. In addition, Bell Atlantic (BEL $52 5/8) has continued to expand its roll-out with Westell as the primary vendor for CPE. We also believe that British Telecom (BTY $134 3/4) is not too far behind some of the ILECs in North America and will have its first significant quarter in ordering CPE. As well, we believe Westell is in solid position to win business at some other ILECs in North America that currently use end to end proprietary systems. We expect announcements from such operators late in the fall. Investment Conclusion - Somebody Stop Me! Westell is currently trading at less than 15x calendar year 2001 EPS. We believe the sell-off is unwarranted and overdone. The company has made significant strides in expanding its margins and penetrating new accounts. Visibility has never been stronger for the company and yet its stock continues to languish. We believe there are three issues that are preventing the investment community from buying this stock: First, the stock is broken technically and many portfolio managers will typically wait until the momentum turns around before getting on board. While we understand this philosophy, we see the current valuation as too attractive to be dissuaded by technicals. Fundamentals are stronger than they have ever been at Westell. Second, investors are unexcited by upside surprises after their expectations were over-inflated in front of the March quarter report. Despite missing some analyst's projections, the March quarter represented solid progress and impressive sales growth. The June quarter will be even more impressive. The ramp is real. Third, many investors are cautious with regards to gross margins in the CPE business. Westell has improved its gross margins every quarter in the last three periods, and we believe it will continue to do so. We have addressed this issue above, and expect the company to address it when it reports results on July 20 after the close of market. We reiterate our STRONG BUY rating on shares of Westell with a $65 price target. +Kaufman Bros., L.P. makes a market in this security. *Kaufman Bros., L.P. acted as an underwriter in a public offering of this security and/or performed other investment banking services. This report is for informative purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness, and that of the opinions based thereon, are not guaranteed. Kaufman Bros., L.P., its affiliates and subsidiaries, and/or its officers and employees may from time to time acquire, hold or sell a position in the securities mentioned herein. Kaufman Bros., L.P. may also perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. Additional information available upon request. c2000 KAUFMAN BROS., L.P. All rights reserved. Reproduction without written permission is prohibited. First Call Corporation, a Thomson Financial company. All rights reserved. 888.558.2500