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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (24761)	6/29/2000 9:01:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

>>>there are many many reasons (I just gave you 5) why the market should be going up<<< it's called the slope of hope dennis. but you got no pump, where is the upside volume, it took a ho lotta 2 billion share days to pump it up to 5000, and record liquidity pump by the fed into 2000 and margin buying and record inflows into the march top, now equity inflows and volume are on the decline and insiders are selling. As i posted on this thread a week ago, the breakout rally last week i believe was a bull trap and a failed inverted H&S pattern on the nasdaq, these happen in bear markets, like they happen on the inverse in bull markets. and paaaaaaallllllllllleaaaaase hang your hat on something other than amazon, it's not a technology company, it's a retailer, selling a low margin product, the hype and bubble that put the pump in amazon, is burst. nobody is going to make microsoft type margins in b2b or b2c, this is a no-brainer, thats why infrastructure has been getting all the play lately, most of this initial crop of b2c and b2b may in fact go belly up. Pioneer's are the ones with the arrows in their backs. Amazon is particularly under pressure here, with a time cover for bezos and a kaboodle of funding, he has had it easy, how will he perform under the gun. sure amazon has branding, but i don't think internet branding is going to hold up like other famous american brands, like coke, ford, merrill lynch, mcdonald's, etc., i see little possibility for differentiation here, anybody can open another amazon dot com. b

To: dennis michael patterson who wrote (24761)	6/30/2000 3:25:10 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Dennis, yes the outlook for the economy is bullish and I trust Carpino a lot, he IS good ..... but Like I wrote on our site while you were away. I too think the economy is fine and I think we have a few good years left. The problem is that stocks are valued for a perfect world, no, a better than perfect world. Earnings are half smoke and mirrors and the PE ratios that were used for hundreds of years had to be adjusted to next years PE ratios, then the year after that. Then we switched to PEG ratios to factor in the faster growth but we outran those numbers so now all you see is next years PEG ratio. Forecasting next years growth? Heck teh analysts can't even figure out what a company is going to earn for one quarter, how can they figure out next years growth rate???? Does anyone really know what interest rates are going to be in 6 months or a year from now, which hedge fund or major bank will blow up etc.? How many thought T when it was trading at 64 would be at 32 today? How about HLIT when it was 160 now at 22 and on and on. I have no problmems with the economy, I do have a problem with valuations. Stock prices are sheer specualtion. OJ writes that the brick and mortars will slow but not tech. Who buys the tech??? Thats righhhhht, the brick and mortars. I too think we will come out of this OK, the question for the trader though is from what level. You stick with stocks so you have some cushion when it comes to time, to an option trader, time is as much a factor as direction. I think we need to hold the 3630 level on teh NDX or we could be in trouble. Same with 48 on GE. So far GE is holding up well bt my cycles are showing it nearing a turning point so it needs to build up some cushion in the next few days before it weakens again or 48 could get sliced easily. As I have posted here numerous times, I am still deeply concerned about the weakness in the gorilla techs. CSCO, SUNW etc have ALWAYS been the first to bounce and they haven't been lately. Either there is a problem we don't know about or else the recent volatility has the big boys thinking what I always do when I see one of these at a "bargain". What are they really worth? Right now, even in the middle of this pullback, they are mostly pushing PEG ratios of 1.7 and I think GE is around 2.3 Of course that assumes that they will continue to grow at the rate forecasted. <ggggg> Ooops, also ORCL already reported. They made earnings but database software revenues came in light and they weakened in stock price a bit before bouncing. Don't get me wrong I am expecting a bounce and have been for days now. It is just that there is plenty to worry about and the market doesn't HAVE to go up. As I posted on our site tonight, I got a cycle inversion for only about the 3rd time ever. There are a lot of weird things happening in the last few weeks. Will Carpinos cycles invert also???? Good Luck, Lee