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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: U.B. Green who wrote (2922)	7/1/2000 11:34:39 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

Bernie, the critical points on the Dow ans Naz have not been breached, however, these four stocks seems to have weaken. I personally will look for reentry into QLGC and SNDK short term, but QCOM and VSH have breached badly. Having said that, QCOM did run last time from $60 to $75, it "could" run again. The fundies on QCOM in general look OK, but the TA really stink, I would use a rally here in the first week of July to bail out. I think you should be able to get between $63 to $65. There is a lot of "talk" about wireless slowing down, that might be the reason for weakness. As for VSH, it should not have dropped below the May's low, the fact that it did could bring it down to the 200dma in mid July (around $30-$31). Here too, it could rally to just under $40/41, and i would (have) take the chips off the table. SNDK and QLGC have not breached their May lows, however, in both cases they are trading under their respective 200 DMA ($88 and $80 respectively), and are still in major down trend. I trade them for exursions to these upper resistance levels. I believe that QLGC is better positioned (above 50 DMA and in a position to breach the 200 DMA at $80), while SNDK is still bound by the 50 DMA ($70 or so) and in a bad NAZ debacle could drop to the low $40. I expect Monday to be a light volume day with an upward bias, if you are in, you may want to use this to lighten up. APH and QLTI are fine examples of stocks in strong uptrends, APH actually made a new high above $66. I would keep these, unless the critical NAZ abor DPow points (3830 and 10300) are breached. Actually, these twpo numbers have just been raised a little to 10320 and 3838, not really a significant change. I still expect this period of indecision to be resolved on the upside, the narrowing of the trading range is creating a flag formation, the interesting thing is that the NAZ is in an uptrend, thus the flag should resolve in an upward break. The Dow, has that diamond formation, and a break under 10320, could result in a violent down turn to the mid 9000, that will have to drag the Naz with it. A break above 4075 on the NAZ will be, IMTO, a powerful signal for the monster rally to come into play, with an initial target of 4565. If that happens, then we should have the Dow above 10750 (closer to 10900) and ready to challenge the 11,000 again. Interesting times, but until the fat lady sings, you got to stay with the strong stocks (like APH and QLTI). By the way, I hope everyone got out of ONT, unscathed, the breach of $8 few weeks back (when I bailed out) was a real bear signal, it is now brushing against 5 and there is nothing to hold it to the $3/$4 area, maybe even worse. Good luck and have a great holiday. Zeev