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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shamsaee who wrote (27148)	7/1/2000 10:10:29 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

The rest of this post was written yesterday specifically in response to 100's comments about Q's value chain. You won't be surprised to learn that I wasn't able to post it. It still fits with the ongoing discussion. I am very frazeled with this WCDMA thing. Why is everbody wanting an inferior, not ready, more expensive,most likely to be delayed by legal battles system over 1x/HDR. I don't pretend to understand it and it is very confusing. There's always the possibility that the Korean situation is another form of posturing with the hopes of improving negotiating leverage with Qualcomm. Because Korea has and continues to have such a large impact on CDMA growth, the Korean carriers probably feel they need Qualcomm less than Qualcomm needs them. I suspect that we will continue to see a lot of waffling until the urgency of being a competitive data carrier becomes a higher priority than posturing. Until then, all we can do is continue watching the strength of the various links in the value chain and the adoption of the product. People will need to be very patient with their investments in wireless companies right now. There's a lot of bad news hitting the press and the market tends to take a very short-term view of anything good or bad. For the most part, the wireless stocks are not going to do well in this bad-press environment. If Nokia begins having some fundamental problems many think will occur, their bellweather stock will not do well and the other wireless stocks will underperform in sympathy. This is why I like a reasonably diversified portfolio. At one time Qualcomm was by far my largest holding. As a result of its self-adjustment, it is now my #2 holding and less than half of my #1 holding. And my #3 and #4 holdings are not all that far behind Qualcomm that either or both of them couldn't pass it. That scenario is fine with me. While one stock is underperforming the market big-time I've got others that are overperforming it big-time. Hot dogs and hamburgers will be burned on the grill this weekend that is exactly half-way through the year. If you have any stocks that are profitable year-to-date, they're outperforming both the Naz and the S&P 500. Every year won't be like last year. --Mike Buckley

To: shamsaee who wrote (27148)	7/1/2000 11:26:54 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

shamsaee, Re: UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (WCDMA) Specification Status << 1)Since there are no clearly defined specs on WCDMA >> Why do you persist in saying that? Some might call this FUD. I simply call it inaccurate and misleading. When Dr. Jacobs made a similar statement neither UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (DS) cdma2000 1xMC phase 0 (IS-2000) had been formally approved by the ITU. Since then BOTH have been formally approved. UMTS UTRA Direct Spread (WCDMA) 'Release 99' is an approved ITU IMT-2000 specification. Now that the specification is approved (and frozen) all major infrastructure providers are designing to it, even as 'Release 2000' evolves. Infrastructure will start to deliver next year. Here is the ITU press release on approval of air interfaces: itu.int The press release refers to these 5 approved air interfaces: itu.int Two are CDMA (UTRA DS & MC) and one is TDMA/CDMA (TC). One is TDMA. One is FDMA. Here are the six network-related standards approved for the 3 Core Network Types (Evolved GSM MAP or UMTS - Evolved ANSI-41 - IP based) and the Network to Network Interface (NNI) is included: itu.int Since both UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (DS) and cdma2000 Multi Carrier MC will evolve in phases we are likely to hear more statements out of Qualcomm like Dr. Jacobs. Qualcomm is in a difficult position relative to UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (DS). They do not have the same type of control over this committee based standard that they have over cdma2000. 3GGP which evolves the specification has excluded CDG and Qualcomm from participation in it. Although the door seems to be open to them to participate, they have opted not to accept the conditions imposed (full support of DS) and continue to evolve their cdma2000 specification in 3GPP2. This may be sensible at this juncture but it places Qualcomm somewhat at a competitive disadvantage relative to the design of DS ASICs. NTT DoMOCO will implement a nonstandard implementation of WCDMA initially, then backhaul when the standard implementation delivers. This does add some confusion. They however are out of spectrum and need to take this action to grow. << CDMA 2000 is ready for implementation >> Very close. MSM5000 1xMC phase 0 chipsets are being sampled. I'm not sure when commercial deliveries begin. I don't think it will be in QCOM's final fiscal quarter. Base station cards, same thing. Unfortunately, in any country other than the US and Canada, the current cdma2000 specification, 1xMC phase 0, is considered to be a 2.5G specification, not 3G. The UWCC is calling EDGE a 3G implementation, CDG is calling 1x 3G. LU and NT are going along with the charade. The rest of the world is not buying it. The investment community and the investing public aren't buying it. To the contrary. Carriers who are purchasing IMT-2000 spectrum are ordering UMTS. cdma 2000 3xMC when specified will be accepted as a 3G implementation. SK Telecom will probably be the first to implement it as an upgrade to the 1xMC upgrade they plan shortly for their existing network. DDI IDO may implement 1xMC Revision A or they may wait for 3xMC. Right now cdma 2000 3xMC looks to me to be farther away from commercial delivery than UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (DS). 2.5G 1xMC phase 0 will achieve higher data rates, quicker better, and faster, than GPRS. Unfortunately by 2004 GPRS will become the dominant air-interface in mobile wireless telephony. By about 2007 or 2008 UMTS UTRA Direct Spread CDMA (DS) may become the dominant air-interface. - Eric -