To: rudedog who wrote (83144 ) 7/1/2000 4:07:08 PM From: Elwood P. Dowd Respond to of 97611 rude... No doubt about it, you and I are WAY COOL.... always have been!!! I'm surprised it took SI so long to figure that out. jajajaja Here's some more pastry from Krusty Kreme. El Street Dismisses Salomon Analyst's Concerns About Compaq By Donna Fuscaldo NEW YORK -- Salomon Smith Barney's Richard Gardner may think Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ) has channel inventory problems, but a slew of competing Wall Street analysts seem to disagree. Compaq fall nearly 10% Thursday on news that Gardner cut his rating on the stock to neutral from buy and lowered his near-term price target to $25 from $45. The stock recently traded at 25 1/4, down another 7/16, or 1.7%. Citing channel inventory concerns, Gardner said Compaq "extended price protection terms on some of its corporate products from 20 days to 30 days," which "calls into question the quality of Compaq's 2Q revenue." U.S. retail personal-computer sales in the second quarter were weak, he said, and Compaq's inventory swelled. A sell-off in Compaq ensued as soon as news of the downgrade circulated through the investment community. The company responded by putting out a press release denying the claims. The press release said the company is comfortable with channel inventory, which has been low and in some cases near stock-out levels. Compaq went on to say that the second quarter "has been very back-end loaded" due to supply constraints early in the period, but said it has made no changes to standard price protection terms or any adjustments made in the normal course of business. After Compaq discounted the claims made by Gardner, analysts Steven Fortuna of Merrill Lynch & Co. and Kevin McCarthy of Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette Securities Corp. quickly came out saying that the sell-off in the stock presented a buying opportunity. In an interview with CNBC Thursday, Kevin McCarthy said Compaq doesn't have build-up in inventory and was seeing strong demand in its commercial channels. Fortuna said in a research note that there will be no "material change to guidance" for the second quarter. McCarthy and Fortuna weren't the only ones to disagree with Salomon analyst Gardner. Lehman Brothers Inc. analyst Daniel Niles put out a research note reiterating his buy rating on Compaq, saying the company's second quarter is on track. "We remain confident in our revenue and EPS estimates," said Niles in the note. "In general, we believe that weakness in consumer (PC sales) is being counteracted by strong server and high-end corporate sales." Niles has a second-quarter earnings estimate of 21 cents a share for Compaq. "Given the opportunity created by a competitor's downgrade, our expectations for a strong second half, and statements from the company after the close, we would be aggressive buyers of the stock," Niles wrote. He went on to say that he finds it "hard to believe" that Compaq would put out Thursday's press release if it expected to post a weak second quarter, "given the legal ramifications that poor results would surely create after this action by the company" so late in the quarter. A.G. Edwards analyst Jimmy Johnson said Compaq is on a comeback trail and that channel inventory is doing "really well." Retail demand for PCs slowed down a little in the second quarter, he said, but that is always a seasonally slow time for retail PC sales. Johnson, who has a buy rating on Compaq, also agreed that the stock's decline is a good buying opportunity. At Wit SoundView, analyst Mark Specker said he routinely conduct checks into inventory levels. As a result of his checks, he said, he didn't think inventory levels were "at all high" and, in fact, were on the low side in most cases. Specker is predicting that the stock price will climb because Compaq is doing very well. Investors, however, remained dubious Friday. Shares were recently off 3/8, or 1.5%, at 25 3/8 on volume of 21.2 million, compared with a daily average of 15.4 million. Gardner nor Compaq officials were immediately available for comment.