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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27180)	7/2/2000 8:53:11 AM
From: 100cfm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

But until NOK proves wcdma viable, both technologically and financially, to the carriers, I doubt that Korea will bolt from the Q camp as it would not be in their best self interests. If it was strictly up to NOK to prove WCDMA viable I wouldn't worry a bit. But Q itself said they will have a WCMDA chip by second half of 01. If Q continues to its ways the chip will be ready sooner. Q itself may prove the viability of WCDMA itself. Which would be good because if that's the way the world is going, better for Q to be there first and start collecting sooner rather then later. We just need to know how much they will be collecting and how soon. Also agree it maybe a negotiating tactic on the Koreans part and a good one at that. We will know on the 10th. Does the value chain ever come to love it's Gorilla?? Q is sure one hated Gorilla right now! 100 heading back to the beach

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (27180)	7/3/2000 12:46:05 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, Re: QCOM - Nokia - Cisco - Direct Spread (DS) CDMA in Korea << But until NOK proves wcdma viable, both technologically and financially, to the carriers, I doubt that Korea will bolt from the Q camp as it would not be in their best self interests >> I'm not sure about that. Remember, the Koreans were the first early adopters of CDMA technology. Korea mandated CDMA before it was proven that CDMA was viable, both technologically and financially. They can do the same with DS (wcdma) UMTS. There are some compelling reasons for Korea (or at least some Korean carriers) to consider UMTS over cdma2000. SK Telecom with its longstanding experience with CDMA and wireless data, is probably in pretty good position to evaluate the comparative advantages of UMTS v. cdma2000, and there are some compelling reasons for Korea (or at least some Korean carriers) to consider UMTS over cdma2000. Their evaluation of DS UMTS didn't start yesterday. They have been at it for some time. I hope nobody missed this 14 month old press release: nokia.com >> Nokia and SK Telecom join forces to advance WCDMA technology April 21, 1999 Nokia and Korean operator SK Telecom have announced a development agreement to further the development of Third Generation Wideband Code Division Multiple Access (WCDMA) technology. The scope of the joint program includes development of a high-capacity WCDMA Radio Access Network optimization technology and radio network planning and measurement tools. << << Koreans ... are tough negotiators, but they are thorough in finding their most advantageous position. Their wcdma stance might just be a tough negotiating tactic >> While it is possible that consideration by Korean carriers of DS UMTS could possibly be a negotiating ploy and could relate to royalty rates, or the possibility of the DoCoMo buy in, but it is more likely that it relates (as you say) to "the possibility of a huge wcdma export market". and also to going mainstream with global interoperability and roaming. It is not up to Nokia alone to prove UMTS and DS viable. It is up to the carriers who developed the standard, led by Vodafone, DoCoMO, TIM, Hutchinson Wampoa, FT, DT, et al, to prove it viable with the help of the vendors who helped them develop the open architecture like Ericsson, Nokia, Lucent, Nortel and Motorola as well as Siemens and Alcatel. The router based IP network kind of changes the paradigm. SK Telecom can evolve to higher data rates using 1xMC, build out UMTS with DS in new spectrum, upgrade the existing network in existing spectrum to 3xMC, and tie it all together with the IP network Cisco and Nokia will plan and help implement. It is a model for future networks. It could be used in China to tie Unicoms existing GSM/Network into a cdma2000 network in existing spectrum. It is noteworthy that the Chinese are collaborating closely with Korea. The potential for mobile wireless growth in China is awesome, and it justifies the long painful expenditure of time and effort expended by Qualcomm. The latest update (June 5) regarding the SK Telecom and Nokia joint activity to develop planning and optimization for IMT-2000 is here: nokia.com This press release on Nokia Cisco collaboration on IP networks titled "Nokia and Cisco Sign IP Networking Agreement to Boost Connectivity between Mobile and IP Networks" is also of possible interest: cisco.com Unless mandated otherwise SK Telecom will implement DS in new spectrum and MC in old as they have planned for some time, IMO. But ... nothing has really changed. CDMA can not be implemented without Qualcomm IP. Other players will share in WCDMA royalties and licensing. Qualcomm possibly becomes a royalty play in 3G (open standard v. proprietary) but at the very least, they will be on Main Street in cdmaOne/cdma2000 when 3G kicks in. They are the cdma gorilla in 2G (2.5G, 2.75). The old silverback Cisco provides the plumbing and pipes. - Eric -