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To: shamsaee who wrote (27183)	7/2/2000 3:09:12 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

ERIC correction on one statement.Prudential made the expensive spectrum cost and more inclination towards cdma200 and edge based on ERIC ceo comments.

To: shamsaee who wrote (27183)	7/2/2000 10:45:14 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Shahram, << Since DOcomo is the only scheduled roll out of wcdma next year and they have what you call their own specs,I took that as a standard without clearly defined specs >> I think it is important to note that the lead time between publishing specifications or standards in the wireless world for a new technology or a generational change in technology is generally considered to take a minimum of two years. In the case of Qualcomm (who controls the technology) this lead time can be shorter if their value chain is fully committed In the case of IS-95 based cdmaOne, it took 6 year from initial demo to commercial launch and almost 8 before the product was stable. IS-95 was in approved spec in 1993, launched in Hong Kong in September 1995, trialed in Korea in 1996, and finally had full commercial delivery in October 1996 (PrimeCo), and November 1996 (Sprint). It will be a similar scenario with WCDMA which has made it to specification as UMTS UTRA DS. DoCoMo is rolling out next year because they are out of existing spectrum, want to begin to commercialize the 3rd Gen technology that they have IP in, and simply can't wait for the standardized version of the product. They will backhaul with the standardized version when it is available. When an air interface was being considered for 3G GSM (UMTS), ETSI considered five proposals. They chose the WCDMA proposal submitted jointly by NTT DoCoMo and Ericsson This is what they eventually will roll out. They don't have "their own specs". They are building out initially to draft specifications of the standardized technology for time to market considerations. << I understand that NOK, ERIC are planning on trials but up to date have not heard or read any concrete proof of a WCDMA aspics being sampled while MSM5000 is being sampled as I right this >> Its about time to be sampling a little early to be sampling WCDMA asics for DoCoMo, but way premature for UMTS UTRA DS. NOK and ERICY are conducting trials. Tiny Isle of Man will probably be first to launch UMTS UTRA DS, and that will probably be 2002. UMTS UTRA DS will not roll out commercially until 2002 or 2003 (and their could be the same type of delays that GSM experienced in 1991, and cdmaOne in experienced in 1994 and 95). I think realistically we are probably looking at 2004 for 3G in quantity with infrastructure delivering in 2002 & 2003 in quantity. I look for 3xMC in 2003 or 2004. MSM5000 is being sampled now. Its a great chip. I hope it ships commercially in calendar quarter 3 so QCOM can take revenue this fiscal and save our bacon. Talking about the MSM5000 as a 3G chipset is a bit of a stretch, though, IMO. Those that want to call it 3G can do so. I call it 2.5G or 2.75G. CDG's language (which they changed a few months back) was more appropriate than todays. They called 1xMC an "interim step" to 3G. << If I understood your post correctly, CDMA2000 is going to be a small minority and GPRS and eventually WCDMA will be dominant 3g upgrades >> Today the dominant 2G air interface worldwide is circuit switched GSM. GPRS is 2G (2.5G). It will become the dominant air interface worldwide by late 2004 or 2005. Still 2G, just higher data rates, like 1xMC only slower. UTRA DS (at whatever phase of development it is at will probably eventually become the dominant air interface worldwide (2007, 2008). According to an In-Stat worldwide wireless subscriber forecast, 3G will begin to roll out in 2001, attracting some 52.5 million subscribers. Japan will be the first region to roll out 3G in 2001 followed by Western Europe in mid-to-late 2003. The forecast indicates that 2G and 2.5G technology will peak in 2004 and will then slowly be replaced by 3G. No research firm I have seen studies from have ever given cdma2000 a shot at higher than 30% market share in the 3G world. Some researchers are saying 20%. Korean decisions will have a bearing. << With reference to qcom and cdg group being excluded with 3GPP unless they endorse wcdma,it sounds like saying give up your standard and we will give you a place on the team,which really does not leave them much choice >> I don't read it that way. QCOM & and CDG have been trying to get into 3GGP since it was formed and eventually formed 3GPP2. 3GPP got tired of perpetually hearing them say that there should be a single 3G standard (cdmaOne) and have told them they can join IF they actively promote all 3 IIMT-2000 CDMA standards. Eventually they will probably join. For now they are working on harmonization in OHG. What happens there will determine when a 3xMC specification will be prepared. There is a potential gorilla conflict here. If Qualcomm & CDG join 3GPP and ETSI takes over administration of the MC specification (as it has been reported the EU could mandate) ... does Qualcomm become a royalty play in the multimedia tornado? Potentially they could lose some proprietary control over their architecture. << I would appreciate your thoughts on ERIC CEO's comments that expensive spectrum might push carriers towards cdma2000 and edge >> ERICY CEO has cause for concern. Expensive spectrum and lack of a business case for multimedia 3G (in most parts of the world - Asia a possible exception) could in fact push operators to focus more on GSM/EDGE (TDMA already committed to EDGE) and 1xMC (where regulatory environment permits). << Could this possibly be a sign of splits within the camp in Europe and specifically voda's spectrum in the UK >> Possibly, I suppose. Not really, IMO. Not yet. Maybe never. Let me repost a few paragraphs I posted (some of) yesterday from Cahners In-Stat that bear on what you and I are discussing here: >> Mobile telephone companies have a daunting task ahead of them to migrate from first or second generation technology (1G/2G) to third generation (3G). While 3G technology, also called Universal Mobile Telephone Service (UMTS), offers high bandwidth for new multimedia features, it could result in financial disaster for wireless providers that do not make the transition smoothly, says Ray Jodoin, senior analyst for Cahners In-Stat Group. <snip> Many 2G wireless carriers will upgrade their existing networks through data speed enhancements. These enhancements may be a transitional phase to 3G and can be considered 2.5G or 2.75G. "These enhancements should provide adequate messaging data rates for at least the next five years, but will not increase subscriber capacity," Jodoin says. This upgrade approach may yield the best financial results for wireless carriers, Jodoin says. Today's subscribers do not appear ready to pay for wireless streaming audio and video that 3G will enable. They are more likely to pay for wireless e-mail which can be facilitated by 2.5G technology. << << I tried to reply yesterday but SI won't let me post and all scr....d up >> I hear you. I still can't get PM's off. They must have switched to TDMA. - Eric -