Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Saulamanca who wrote (55903)	7/2/2000 10:28:37 AM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim Bryan: Nice chart, I like the price overlays. Darn Chip has really done wonders with his site. I think it is the best on the net...at least the best freebie...<g> I like his java charts as well...you can draw trend lines. Of course to share the chart you would have to screen capture the chart, upload it to a web site and then post the link on MDD. Regards, LG

To: Saulamanca who wrote (55903)	7/2/2000 12:16:30 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Some $COMPX Observations The June 30, 2000 close is about the same as the close for May 1, 2000 and December 1, 1999. While traders could have made (or lost) a considerable amount of money during that time period, a buy and hold investor is about flat for the year. That being said, it would appear that some additional correction seems forthcoming. While I might argure that the growth rate of the trading channel established in 1999 still has a higher slope than the NASDAQ has experienced during any sustained period over the last 5 years, I can imagine arguments to the effect that the rate of growth which has been possible due to technology has not only enabled the last five years to grow faster than and other historical period, but has done so at an accelerating rate. So perhaps 1999 (January - November) is not exuberance but technology. Establishing a linear regression trend line for this period, (which almost works since the residuals appear to be somewhat normal in distribution although not quite random) and then projecting it forward results in a value of 3500 with a rising trading channel between 3300 and 3725. While the market did trade in this channel during the last two weeks of May, the historically unprecedented gap up from 3582 on June 1 to 3728 on June 2 took the market above this channel. While the top of the gap was penetrated once by the stick on June 13, the trading channel has been avoided like the plague. How and when we get there seems more problematic. Looking at a number of indicators, it is not clear to me that they are not, when taken as a whole, fairly inclonclusive. But that is one heck of a gap.

To: Saulamanca who wrote (55903)	7/2/2000 12:41:06 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Jim Bryan thanx for the memories............... In fact I wa shighly suspicious market might be going down about a month ago and went into cash.Locked in my profits always cognizant mindful of of famous Chinese saying : " nobody ever lost money taking profits ." I was in cash in April loaded up during low in May and out by June. Second point: I try very hard, believe me, to have the market prove something to me , rather than me prove something to the market . ( It's called " The scientific method " back in Med School, <ggg>. ). So where do we stand and go from here? Frankly Jim I don't know for sure.I have to take a guess. However this I do know: We all are being fed inaccurate data from CPI and BLS, such as: -there is no energy inflation. Gas prices are great. ( clearly BLS drives electric vehicles only ). -There is no wage inflation. ( Clearly again, BLS workers are not given stock options, have not seen stock options, and do not understand that stock options count towards wage increases. question now is with stock prices collapsing where is the " X generation " of IT workers going to get their high pay from if not from dot.com options? ). The next point is: does being fed innaccurate data make any difference? Not yet I think. The Great Investors Sea over yonder does not worry about BLS. There is still a lot of Faith in the stock market to solve all our problems and in April we did not have a true wash out phenomenon. So I think that the following is likely to happen now: -Next week we may continue to be up because of residual July 4 euphoria after seing " The Patriot ". -2nd week of July we start looking at PPI and CPI which THIS time are very likely to be zingers.We will be going up and down that week. 3rd week is CPI week and is also super Tuesday and we are all going to hear veiled cautious about the future eps reports Add to that 3rd Tuesday options expiration and market likely to be down all that week culminating into Fri. - 4th week we are likely to be up again because cries will start to come out from the pundit shills: " The worst is over and these stocks are well priced ". Overall I think that now to Nov we will trade 3500 - 4500. I started building positions in my favorites that got taken down. TXN so far. I also plan to play any special opportunities . Such a one I think now is CONSECO. Message 13984890 So to conclude you may very well be right: -First we go up. -but then we down. -and then again we go up. If you want to get a better feel of how that will feel I suggest that if you haven't yet seen it , you go and see The Perfect Storm cheers TA