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Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: aknahow who wrote (13922)	7/2/2000 8:56:43 PM
From: Cacaito	Respond to of 17367

Gw, Now you sound clearer, but: 1. Trauma trial prove it does not work in the blood loss condition, and this corresponds well with theory, if one has damage from blood loss, why is an antibiotic going to work except in infectious complications were regular antibiotics are use very early indeed. For Neuprex was even worse, it did not work even in the infectious complications prevention!!! The DSMB STOPPED DUE TO FUTILITY the complete opposite of Lilly's Zovant!!! Neuprex equal FUTILITY, not even the large numbers show a difference in trauma!!! The Icos trial did show pafase WORKS!!! in the same scenario. And just check (again)the phase II trauma: It did not work. Besides, the prize goes to the one PROVEN TO WORK, almost and maybe does not count!!! 2. xoma/Lilly dead on arrival. 3. But, you are very hopeful on rbpi21 despite an FDA rejection, it just does not compute that the burden goes to the one with the SUCCESS trial. But, to be fair to your possible "surprise" then the winner, if not Lilly, will be ICOS Pafase that with only 240 patients in two different dosages and two control groups showed clear decreases in mortality (50%) and ARDS in both sepsis and trauma conditions, so each arm was about 60 subjets!!! These results were the ones We did dream in the past but our hope WAS neuprex (remember when everybody was dreaming on the possibility that the DSMB stop the trial?) WELL! now you have the REAL situation and you are not enthusiastic! Chiron still is on the run with Tifacogin in phase III, will it work? Their phase II results are nowhere to be found, except for their willingness (and SEARLE)to go for III. The big number of subjects in the Zovant trial could indicate that it works marginally? it is rare that DSMB will stop for just marginal, I have seem other trials when they are stop! and one wonders how could they see the lack of benefits to the control and not stop earlier, but they do. The ethics of it is usually set ahead and they are impervious to the experiment, except for damage ie lack of safety. I would not bet my money shorting Lilly (and without the data, mistake I did believing xoma, and even worse believing BAX, but just for historical perspective, not for crying). NO, I am not saying you said short it. For example, many vivus fans did not believe viagra to be good, but whoever shorted Pfizer cause they for long did!!! Y not gave the data (except minimal references to the best set) got in trouble with the quadrupling of the stock price. Blueg, Bax did claim they expect $500M from rbpi21 and they have a good understanding of the data and bet $9.5M (I never believe they will put the $35M just like that)but it was kind of respectable, and I loss good believeing the bax!!! I lost 4 times what I made. BAX respectable? well, not anymore the FDA REJECTED Baxomarbpi21!!! Will I believe the Bax now? Show me the money first!!! even a more complete product from NVX got the ax in the UK (meningococal C vaccine) and with these two strikes, should I believe the second rate biotech bax business? (they are just generic biotech at best, not a single product is theirs, just acquisitions, and cheap ones, do not confuse that with dumb, which they are not)