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Pastimes : Mexico -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marcos who wrote (33)	7/4/2000 2:27:12 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 143

Truly an historic event. Change will come slowly and in many cases IMO, unwillingly. Reminds me of Gorbachev when he started out. Very centralized control in the capital city and resistance will likely be encountered from the fiefdoms in outlying areas. I have a home there and used to have a business in Mexico City (hence CIMA which was the name of my company). My wife is Mexican and we have three Mexican/Canadian kids. I am a permanent landed immigrant in Mexico. We'll be watching closely in the years to come. It's the richest country that I know of on the planet, hopefully this'll be the start of the Mexican people taking responsibility for cleaning up their act and entering the first world where they belong.

To: marcos who wrote (33)	7/6/2000 1:12:49 PM
From: CIMA	Respond to of 143

Mexico: Now, the Hard Part Summary With nearly all the votes counted in Mexico, Vicente Fox has won 43.8 percent of the vote, as well as ensured the defeat of the country's ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). However, Fox is unlikely to realize the public's broad, contradictory - and nearly messianic - hopes. Fox's coalition has failed to win a working majority in the Mexican Congress, and the ruling party continues to permeate the country's bureaucracies. Fox's own alliance is a contradictory mix of conservatives and greens. As a result, the president elect's six-year tenure is likely to be constrained by compromise. Analysis With 93 percent of voting booths counted by late Monday, Alliance for Change candidate Vicente Fox held 43.8 percent of the vote for the presidency, compared to 36.7 percent won by the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party's (PRI) candidate Francisco Labastida. Fox's victory marks the first upset for the PRI since 1929. According to international observers, turnout was extraordinarily high and the elections were reportedly the fairest in Mexico's history. This turnout, however, will do more than pick the next occupant of Los Pinos, the presidential mansion. Also at stake are seats in the Mexican Congress, revitalized in recent years. Fox's coalition is reportedly winning elections for the Senate and Chamber of Deputies, though by a thinner margin. Preliminary results also show the National Action Party (PAN), one of the parties in the alliance, winning governorships in Guanajuato and Morelos while the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) reportedly retained control of the Mexico City government. ________________________________________________________________ Would you like to see full text? stratfor.com ___________________________________________________________________ After the euphoria of victory subsides, Fox faces the unenviable task of living up to the messianic expectations placed upon him. He will govern without a working majority in the Congress. Throughout the campaign, he has promised to be all things to all people. To Mexico's poor, Fox has promised to more evenly distribute the country's wealth, implement jobs programs and nearly double spending on education. To Mexico's business elite, the former Coca Cola executive promised to seek foreign investment and to remain committed to market oriented economic policies. Fox's greatest challenge will lie in his vow to stamp out the corruption that is endemic in Mexico. The PRI lost the presidency, and the majority in the Mexican Congress, but it is far from toppled. It is pervasive at all levels of national, state and local government; even presidents in recent years have had trouble getting bureaucracies and state governments to toe the line. Fox's next campaign - the one that will seek to root out corruption and spark economic reform - will crash headlong into this entrenched PRI rank and file. _______________________________________________________________ For more on Latin America, see: stratfor.com __________________________________________________________________ In addition, the Alliance for Change fell short of winning a working majority in the Chamber of Deputies, which under Mexico's electoral rules requires more than 42 percent. As such, the new president will be forced to consider compromise from the start; he will find his time absorbed in the task of coalition building, appealing either to the PRI or to the leftist PRD-led Alliance for Mexico. Preliminary results show the leftist alliance winning 19.1 percent of the vote in the Chamber of Deputies and 19.3 percent in the Senate. Fox also faces potential problems from within his own coalition, an unlikely marriage of his own conservative PAN and the Ecological Green Party (PVEM). His pro business agenda will be under close scrutiny from the PVEM. Fox has also vowed to form a broad-based administration, with representatives from all parties. He may have no choice. Without decisive control of Congress, and facing entrenched opposition at all levels of the Mexican bureaucracy, Fox has little choice but to compromise. His supporters, expecting dramatic change in reward for rejecting the status quo, are in for a disappointment. (c) 2000 WNI, Inc. _______________________________________________ SUBSCRIBE to the free, daily Global Intelligence Update. Click on stratfor.com UNSUBSCRIBE by clicking on stratfor.com _______________________________________________ Stratfor.com 504 Lavaca, Suite 1100 Austin, TX 78701 Phone: 512-583-5000 Fax: 512-583-5025 Internet: stratfor.com Email: info@stratfor.com

To: marcos who wrote (33)	8/25/2000 7:05:41 PM
From: CIMA	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 143

The American investment banker was at the pier of a small coastal Mexican village when a small boat with just one fisherman docked. Inside the small boat were several large yellow fin tuna. The American complimented the Mexican on the quality of his fish and asked how long it took to catch them. The Mexican replied that it only took a little while. The American then asked why didn't he stay out longer and catch more fish? The Mexican said he had enough to support his family's immediate needs. The American then asked, "but what do you do with the rest of your time?" The Mexican fisherman said, "I sleep late, fish a little, play with my children, take siesta with my wife, Maria, stroll into the village each evening where I sip wine and play guitar with my amigos, I have a full and busy life." The American scoffed, "I am a Harvard MBA and could help you. You should spend more time fishing and with the proceeds, buy a bigger boat with the proceeds from the bigger boat you could buy several boats, eventually you would have a fleet of fishing boats. Instead of selling your catch to a middleman you would sell directly to the processor, eventually opening your own cannery. You would control the product, processing and distribution. You would need to leave this small coastal fishing village and move to Mexico City, then LA and eventually NYC where you will run your expanding enterprise." The Mexican fisherman asked, "But, how long will this all take?" To which the American replied, "15-20 years." "But what then?" The American laughed and said that's the best part. "When the time is right you would announce an IPO and sell your company stock to the public and become very rich, you would make millions." "Millions.. Then what?" The American said, "Then you would retire. Move to a small coastal fishing village where you would sleep late, fish a little, play with your kids, take siesta with your wife, stroll to the village in the evenings where you could sip wine and play your guitar with your amigos."