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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (2925)	7/3/2000 8:48:02 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Misheldo, I am not following half of those stocks. They should do OK if we get that "monster" rally, but they will not if we drop. QLTI, you have missed most of the move, I see another spurt to the $90 to $95 and then we will have to reexamine QLTI, it is quite different here in the mid $70 than it was just under $50. APH has just broken out and could easily go to $75 or so before a major retrenchment which should be limited to the $58 to $64 area. IRF is similar to APH in its behavior and probably a good medium term investment. Larry follows this one much closer than I do. As for SSTI, it is extremely volatile, but it is really "cheap" in terms of its future earnings. The problem, of course is that a huge amount of capacity is being added to flash, and while most of it is in the high capacity (rather than the embedded flash that SSTI concentrates on), the sector may have spells of fear of gluts, it should be avoided only once the peak in the semi is visible. I can see this stock doubling from its current level in the $80, but you must be nimble with it, I do not think it is a good "long term" situation. RMBS is fairly valued here at around $100, that is 25 times its peak earnings IMHO, and in a bad market could drop as low as about $57 or so. The critical points are $97 and $75. If it breaks above $115 and close there, we should have a run extending to the $160 or so area. I do not think it is a good long term situation anymore (at $100), because it is fairly valued. That does not mean it will not go to overvaluation, it has before and probably will again. Zeev