To: Ausdauer who wrote (12467 ) 7/3/2000 3:47:45 PM From: Allegoria Read Replies (5) | Respond to NOR,NAND,MLC,SNDK, SSTI and 2 cents..."First, SanDisk's claim to fame is its NOR flash cells, not NAND." nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com IMO, SNDK has pinned its hopes on the SD Memory Cards. Matsushita, Toshiba and SanDisk jointly developed the SD Cards. Toshiba says: "At Toshiba, the inventor and prime supplier of NAND flash memory for SD Memory Cards, we will accelerate and expand our memory card business through the development and commercialization of state-of-the-art digital electronics products and systems fully utilizing our capabilities in portable and mobile equipment. Toshiba and SanDisk intend to jointly develop 512 megabit (Mbit) and 1 gigabit (Gbit) flash memory chips and Secure Digital (SD) Memory Card controllers. The companies plan to employ Toshiba's future 0.16 micron and 0.13 micron NAND flash memory technology and SanDisk's multilevel cell (MLC) flash technology and controller system integration. sandisk.com sandisk.com The NAND memory wafers will primarily be used to manufacture flash memory cards for use in digital cameras, digital music players and future generations of cell phones. Q: Are you saying that SNDK's products are unacceptable for code storage? A: No. I meant to imply that I think it is more likely that SSTI moves into higher density flash (as code requirements increase) than SNDK will move to lower-density. Q: Second, are you certain that SSTI manufactures all components of their 96MB CF card? A: No, I am almost certain SSTI does not manufacture all the components of their CF card, regardless of the density.Q: During the last c.c. the SSTI CEO stated that the highest density product they will manufacture is 16Mbit. Has this changed? A: Nope. Check out: ssti.com The argument you make suggests that the requirements of electronics manufacturers will remain static in this ultra-low density range. nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com Q: Do you believe that SSTI can easily enter moderate and high density flash applications using the Superflash technology they are licensing? A: Easily? Well you probably aren't going to like this answer but Yes and No. Currently in the market place, demand is highest at the 2 and 4 Mbits densities. SSTI cannot keep up with demand at these densities and getting low-density flash is a major challenge. This is because the ADSL market and cable modems market are on fire. Does anyone think this is going to come to an end anytime soon? Because SSTI is unable to meet demand, there is little financial incentive for moving into higher density flash. SuperFlash is scalable, but to what degree can foundries be pushed is anyone's guess. I still believe that 16Mbit is a far cry for 256 or 512Mbit. SanDisk, Toshiba, Hitachi and Intel are pushing the envelope on the higher end. Aus, that is the very basis of my argument disputing your claim that SSTI faces GREATER competition in its market place than SNDK! The company's proprietary technology and focus on the low-density end of the market should protect it from competitors. SSTI has positioned itself to dominate the code storage market. No one can compete on price (both product AND manufacturing) & quality.I don't see SSTI as capable of competing in this race. Q: Further, SSTI could feel pressure from above as established semiconductor manufactures place pressure on the lower density manufactures. As I said before, if margins are fat and there is a profit to be had, competitors will come. Is the converse true? Will SSTI be able to make a play at moderate or high density applications or is this a "one-way street"? A: Yes - SSTI could feel pressure from the established semiconductor manufactures. But at these lower densities, SSTI appears to be winning and I am not seeing anything (including a tightening market place in the higher density arena!) that is going to change them from continuing to win. Your point about profit margins is interesting because profit margins right now have never been higher…I appreciate your fervor and diligence in presenting the SSTI case. Owning both SNDK and SSTI would seem to be a good fit as they don't overlap. I personally remain doubtful that SSTI can be as well diversified as SNDK can be. Concentrating on low density applications and hoping that the technology doesn't migrate away from you seems a bit risky, but if you are assured that this is the case then SSTI should flourish. as it evolves, and crush any competitor that commits capital to this arena. This is a capital intensive busniess and you usually get 1 years notice before your competitor bombs you with new product. Before a competitor enters this war they must be assured that a bloody price war will break out and they will loose. That is why I am investing in this SuperFlash thingy…
